Drought is not only becoming a problem in the Netherlands. Growers in Germany could also use some more rain than has fallen so far this month. The dry winter and spring are reflected in grains and rapeseed, writes the DRV. Nevertheless, the relationship keeps the estimate for the coming grain harvest unchanged. Drought is also an issue in the US, although remarkably enough, the crops that are largely grown outside the driest areas are making the biggest strides.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0,75 higher at €209,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed marginally higher, up 0,2% to $5.29¼ per bushel. Corn had a better way up, closing 1,1% higher at $4.77¼ per bushel. However, the biggest gainer last trading session was soybeans, up 1,2% to $10.53 per bushel.
The Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV) estimates the German grain harvest at just under 42 million tonnes. That is 7% more than last year's harvest but unchanged from the DRV's previous forecast. The rapeseed harvest is estimated at 4 million tonnes, an increase of 10% compared to the previous season. Almost half of the German grain harvest is winter wheat and the area of winter wheat is 12,3% larger than in the 2024 harvest year. According to the DRV figures, slightly less spring wheat and barley were sown. This change in area can be easily explained by the wet winter and autumn of 2023/24 and the much better conditions in 2024/25.
The grains are lush and green and the rapeseed is blooming profusely, but that image is a bit misleading according to Guido Seedler, grain market expert at DRV. "If you look more closely, the plants are less tillered and shorter than normal." That has everything to do with the drought that German farmers are also suffering from. In large parts of the country, only half of the average amount of rain has fallen since the beginning of this year. March was even the driest month since the start of the measurements. The rain that fell in April was badly needed for the arable crops, according to Seedler. More water remains desirable. "We urgently need more rain so that the grains and rapeseed can reach their actual yield potential." Whether DRV's yield forecast comes true therefore depends mainly on the rain that will fall in the coming weeks and months, the organization writes.
Dry tire across the US
Drought is and remains an important theme in the US. The latest drought monitor shows that it is still dry in a band in the middle of the US. And these are precisely the states where most wheat is grown. For example, 49% of the spring wheat is in a drought area and 33% of the winter wheat. Maize and soy, whose main growing areas are slightly more to the east, have fewer problems with a shortage of moisture. For example, 26% of the maize is in a drought area and 21% of the soy.
The fact that corn and soybeans rose a step last trading session is not so much due to a weather premium that is being built up. According to analysts, there are now also some bright spots despite the tensions in the area of trade between the US and China. For example, Japanese media report that Japan would import more soybeans from the US as part of a new trade agreement between the two. In this view, there are still quite a few potential sales markets outside of China that can still be developed, according to various experts.