The trading of wheat from the 2024 harvest is almost over on the futures markets. For the European growers, the sales season ends with a hangover. Disappointing yields due to the wet growing season that characterized the 2024 harvest were only reflected to a limited extent in the prices. The expectations for the coming harvest in terms of yield are much more positive.
The May wheat contract on the Matif managed to hold its ground at €200 per tonne in the last trading session. The September contract, which is traded the most, lost €1,25 to close at €204,25 per tonne. The mood on the CBoT was also subdued. Wheat moved mainly sideways, closing 1 cent lower at $5.18 per bushel. Corn fell 1,5% lower at $4.41 per bushel. Soybeans closed 0,4% lower at $10.30½ per bushel.
The last contract for wheat from the 2024 harvest is almost over on the Paris stock exchange. The conclusion we can draw about the 2024/25 sales season is that selling early has yielded more than waiting until the end of the season. Last year, the May contract on the Paris stock exchange ended at €211,25. This year, we will probably end up a bit lower. The first contract for the 2024 harvest went through €2024 in the second half of May 260, partly due to moderate harvest expectations due to the extremely wet growing season at the time. Those poor yields turned out not to be a lie, but once the wheat was in, the market did not take any significant steps upwards. Most growers were unable to get much more than €220.
Analysts are generally much more positive about the yields of the upcoming wheat harvest than a year ago. In large parts of Europe it is on the dry side but last autumn was favourable for sowing winter wheat and since October little winter grain has been lost, for example because everything is flooded. Rain would be needed by now to fill the ears properly if they come through the coming period.
In the Black Sea region, the growing season is not going entirely according to plan after a dry start and some frost damage here and there. The harvest is certainly not completely lost there. Ikar raised its forecasts for the upcoming wheat harvest in Russia by 1,3 million tonnes to 83,8 million tonnes. That is certainly not a record like the 92 million tonnes in 2022/23. If realized, the upcoming harvest would be slightly above the five-year average, which according to USDA data stands at 83,5 million tonnes.
In the US state of Oklahoma, the results of the Wheat Commission crop tour are known. The wheat harvest in the state is estimated at 101,2 million bushels compared to 108,3 bushels last year. The average yield is estimated at 35,9 bushels per acre (about 2,4 tons per hectare). Last year, farmers in Oklahoma threshed 38 bushels per acre (about 2,6 tons per hectare). In addition to lower yields, according to the USDA data, 5% less wheat was planted in Oklahoma.
Next Monday, the USDA will release a new edition of the Wasde report. This will be the first report in which the USDA takes a look at stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year. In the run-up to the Wasde, the Wall Street Journal conducted a poll among analysts. No major shifts are expected for the 2024/25 season in corn, wheat and soybeans. For 2025/26, respondents to the survey expect the corn and soybeans ending stocks to increase compared to 2024/26. Wheat stocks are actually being reduced somewhat.