Wheat has fallen below 200 euros for the first time in a long time

The May contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0,50 lower at €199,50 per tonne. It has been a while since the closing price on the Paris stock exchange fell below €200. The last time was September 2024. Incidentally, the September contract closed at €202,50 per tonne. On the Chicago stock exchange, wheat took a step back, just like in Paris, and closed 1% lower at $5.13 per bushel. Corn also closed lower with a minus of 0,5% at $4.41 per bushel. In contrast to grains, soy was in the plus on the CBoT last trading session. Soy was up 0,6% to $10.36¾ per bushel.

The weather is and remains an important factor in the grain market. Rain in Texas and Oklahoma has done more harm than good, so to speak, for the winter wheat that is ripening. However, yesterday the new drought monitor was released in which part of the southern prairies is no longer colored. And that drought map therefore had a somewhat price-depressing effect. We can make the comment that it is and remains dry in the most important winter wheat state of Kansas.

Statistics Canada released new figures yesterday on the wheat stocks that are still there. At 15,4 million tonnes, it is 1,2% smaller compared to the same period last year. The Canadian wheat stock is larger than the 14,9 million tonnes that the trade was counting on. For the 2025 wheat harvest, Stats Canada predicts a yield of 36,5 million tonnes. This would mean that the yield would be 4,5% higher compared to last season. According to some analysts, this is somewhat remarkable because it is dry in the large growing areas in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and this is not expected to change for the time being. Moisture in the soil has been at its lowest level in six years since February. The fact that Stats Canada is optimistic in the forecast is therefore largely due to an expansion of the wheat area. Despite the volatility that is further exacerbated by the trade issues caused by the US, wheat remains a fixed value for Canadian arable farmers.

Brazil soy exports
US President Trump's trade war also has the necessary consequences for soy. For Brazil, the trade war is currently turning out differently than many players expected, according to Anec. The agency expects that Brazilian soy exports could fall back to 12,6 million tonnes in May. That is approximately 900.000 tonnes less than in April this year and May last year. This while growers have just, but not quite, brought in a record harvest. The reason for the moderate export forecast in the short term has everything to do with the expected demand from China, the largest buyer of Brazilian soy. In the run-up to a possible new term of Trump, Chinese buyers have been hoarding soy. There is therefore no need to buy for the time being. In addition, the Chinese trade also seems inclined to let the relatively large stock of soy hang above the market for the time being before it strikes. Whether that will turn out as it seems now is another matter, according to analysts. Trump's plans are not being well received everywhere, to put it mildly. Countries that currently import relatively large amounts of soy from the US could also switch to other suppliers, such as Brazil, in response to US import tariffs.