News from the US dominated the grain market. After a weekend in Geneva, the US and China reached an agreement on a pause in import tariffs. Furthermore, the USDA released the May edition of the Wasde report and the weekly Crop Progress report was published. As a result, news from the Black Sea region was somewhat overshadowed.
With the May contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday unchanged at €199 per tonne. The September contract closed €1,75 higher, at €204,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains took a step back. Wheat closed 1,3% lower at $4.99 per bushel. In corn, the loss was limited to 0,3% with a closing price of $4.40¼ per bushel. Soybeans took a step up and closed 2,1% higher at $10.66 per bushel.
The worst of the cold has gone out of the air about the import duties that the US and China have been bombarding each other with. After a weekend of negotiations between delegations from both countries in Geneva, Switzerland, both parties have decided to take a ninety-day break on the ever-increasing import duties. A basic duty of 10% has been agreed upon. Due to the role that the US claims China is playing in the fentanyl crisis, an additional 20% duty will remain in force on most goods from China. In effect, this amounts to an import duty of 30% for goods from China in the US. That is a lot lower than the 145% that was hanging over the market before the weekend.
Yesterday evening Dutch time the USDA came out with the Wasde report. In short the report is neutral to bearish for wheat and provides support for corn and soy. For the EU, India, the UK, Russia and Canada, among others, the USDA predicts a larger harvest in 2025 than a year earlier. That is more than enough to compensate for the smaller expected harvests in the US and Australia. Global wheat production would even be a record at 808,5 million tonnes. That is slightly higher than the expected consumption of wheat, which is estimated at 808 million tonnes. The USDA estimates the final wheat stock for the 2025/26 season at 265,7 million tonnes. That is 0,5 million tonnes of wheat.
Global corn consumption increased by 2% from a year earlier to 1.274 million tons. The harvest is estimated at 1.265 million tons. This will be the second year in a row that corn consumption exceeds production. According to the USDA, the final corn stock for the 2025/26 season will be 277,8 million tons. This is 9,5 million tons less than a year earlier and this would be the smallest corn stock since the 2013/14 season, the USDA writes in the Wasde report. The expected soybean harvest has increased by 1% to 426,8 million tons. The larger harvest is partly due to good soybean yields in Brazil. The processing (crush) of soy has increased by 3% to 366,5 million tons. The final soy stock will be 124,3 million tons. This is 1,2 million tons more and is mainly due to larger stocks in Brazil and Argentina.
Corn planting is going like clockwork, according to the Crop Progress report. As of May 11, 62% of the planned area had been planted, the USDA writes. For comparison: the five-year average for this week is 56% planted, and last year at this time, American arable farmers were not even halfway there with 47% planted. There is also a significant lead in soybeans. Of the planned area, 48% is in the ground, compared to 37% in the five-year average and 34% last year this week.
The wheat situation in the US has improved. 54% of the winter wheat area is now rated good or excellent, compared to 51% last week and 50% last year. Just over half, namely 53% of the winter wheat is in ear. This means that growth is slightly ahead of the five-year average with 45% in ear, slightly behind last season when 55% was in ear. American arable farmers are also making good progress with the sowing of spring grain. Spring wheat has been sown for 66%, compared to 49% in the five-year average and 59% last year. Of the planned spring barley area, 63% has been sown, compared to 59% in the five-year average. Oats have been sown for 59%, compared to 53% in the five-year average.
APK-Inform released a new crop forecast for Ukraine. The market agency lowered the expected grain harvest for Ukraine by 3,8% compared to the previous forecast to 55,3 million. This is largely due to a smaller expected corn harvest. APK-Inform expects Ukraine to export 2025 million tons of grain in 26/40,9. In the previous forecast, the agency still assumed an export of 42,6 million tons.
Spring crop sowing is running fairly in line with last year, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. 4,32 million hectares have been sown, which is 76% of the expected spring crop area. Maize is the largest crop at 2,9 million hectares, which is about 2% larger than 2%, according to the ministry.