The European rapeseed market is on an upward trend. At the beginning of this year and towards the end of April, prices on the Paris futures market (Matif) rose sharply and reached the highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Speculation on the futures market is pushing the quotations up.
The expiring futures contracts, especially the May contract, have led to a decrease in trading volumes, making the market more sensitive to price fluctuations. In addition, speculative trading has contributed to the temporary price increase. Rapeseed is a smaller market compared to, for example, wheat or soy. This makes the rapeseed market more susceptible to speculative movements.
"This is a typical movement on paper," says Thea Buseman of Buseman Grains and Fertilizers. "Speculators have to close their positions and that sometimes drives up the price temporarily, without anything physically changing." The soy market also plays a role. In South America, there were increasing concerns about drought in important growing areas at the beginning of this year. The expected record harvest was under pressure in Brazil in particular. As a result, vegetable oils, including rapeseed oil, temporarily rose worldwide.
No shortage on the physical market
Buseman outlines that there is currently no shortage on the physical market. "Both Dutch and European rapeseed fields are doing well for the most part. Farmers speak of a square, even crop, with the crop having had a sunny bloom. The yield expectations are therefore favourable today."
However, several factors remain relevant in the medium term: the global availability of oilseeds is increasing, partly due to large soybean harvests in South America. Good yields are also expected for the new season, both in Europe and in the southern hemisphere. According to Strategie Grains, a French market research company specializing in grains and oilseeds, EU rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 18,6 million tons. This is an increase of almost 11% compared to last year. This increase is the result of more favorable weather conditions this year and an expansion of the acreage in countries such as Romania, Poland and the Baltic States. This development increases the supply and could potentially put pressure on prices. At the same time, the oil price, usually a supporting factor for vegetable oils, has come under pressure in recent months.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in the Black Sea region, currently have only a limited impact on the rapeseed market. "The market has adapted," says Buseman. "The market has found other ways to get the product to the buyer. Only in the event of new escalations could we see direct price effects again."
The uncertain factor remains the demand side. Vegetable oils are not only used in food, but also in biodiesel. It is precisely in that segment that demand is uncertain. Lower oil prices, increasing competition from cheap soy and palm oil and buyers who are cautious are dampening the mood.
Area increases in the EU
According to an estimate by Coceral, the European association of grain traders, the area under rapeseed in the EU will increase by 2025% to 6 million hectares in 6.
Looking at Europe’s largest rapeseed producer, Ukraine, the area was around 2024 million hectares in 1,5, an increase of 7% compared to the previous year. However, a decrease of 2025% in area is expected for 6, to around 1,4 million hectares.
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In the Netherlands, the rapeseed area has shown a downward trend in recent years. Cultivation is mainly concentrated in East Groningen, which is responsible for about 60% of the total Dutch area. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 resulted in exceptionally high prices, with peaks above €1.000 per ton, which led to a temporary revival of the Dutch rapeseed area in 2023.