The outlook for the European grain harvest this summer is significantly more positive than a year ago, mainly due to the weather conditions in large parts of Europe. In Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, it is a different story: persistent drought in the east of the country and earlier frost damage are weighing on yield expectations there.
According to the latest yield forecast from the European association of grain and oilseed traders Coceral, the total grain harvest in Europe will amount to 300,7 million tonnes. This is not only considerably more than the 279,6 million tonnes of last year, but also a plus compared to the forecast made by the organisation in March. The grain crops are benefiting from the favourable weather, especially in France, Spain and south-eastern Europe, where high yields are expected.
Wheat production is estimated at 143,1 million tonnes, almost 17 million tonnes more than in 2024. Higher yields are also expected for barley, with production expected to rise to 59,2 million tonnes, up from 57,1 million tonnes last year.
Ukrainian harvest below five-year average
The German DRV has adjusted the yield forecast for the total grain harvest to 41,4 million tonnes, compared to 2024 million tonnes harvested in 39. Wheat contributes 21,5 million tonnes, an increase of almost 3 million tonnes compared to last year. The winter barley harvest is about to start in Germany. With an expected yield of 8,45 million tonnes, the German DRV says that the harvest is about the same as last year (8,7 million tonnes). The rain in Germany came just in time to limit drought damage in the spring. According to DRV, the coming period will still be important to achieve a solid yield. The crop will still need moisture for three to four weeks before it ripens.
While Western and Central Europe benefit from favourable weather conditions, the picture in Ukraine is very dependent on the region. In particular, the spring of 2025 brought persistent drought in the eastern regions, which had a negative impact on winter cereals. At the same time, favourable conditions occurred in Western, Southern and Central Ukraine, with sufficient precipitation and suitable temperatures. These regions, including Lviv, Odessa and Kiev, contribute to average good yields of winter cereals despite the more difficult conditions in the east of the country. Nevertheless, the yield forecast for winter cereals in Ukraine is below the five-year average.
Matif wheat prices recover on delayed US harvest
Where the Matif fell below €200 for the first time in a month last week, the price has recovered somewhat this week to a closing price of €208 on Wednesday (18 June). Wednesday opened at €202,75, with heavy rain in the 'Great Plains', the main wheat growing area of the US, hampering the progress of the harvest. Due to the delay in the harvest, wheat futures prices are finding some support again.