A top harvest is unlikely for German grain growers. At least that is what the German farmers' association DBV expects. How well the soil can retain moisture will make a big difference to the yield this dry year, according to DBV. The area figures for corn, soy and wheat and the weekly Crop Progress report from the USDA came from the US.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €195 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains showed a plus in the last trading session. Wheat closed 0,8% higher at $5.28¾ per bushel on the Chicago exchange. Corn made a similar move, increasing 0,7% to $4.20½ per bushel. Soybeans took a step back, closing 0,3% lower at $10.24¼ per bushel.
The German farmers' association DBV estimates that 40,1 million tonnes of grain will be harvested in Germany this harvest. This means that the estimated harvest for 2025 is slightly higher than a year ago, when 39 million tonnes were harvested. "We expect an average harvest with very large regional differences," writes Joachim Rukwied, chairman of the DBV in the explanation of the figures. "Location is crucial here. The better soils that can retain moisture reasonably well have withstood the spring drought better than the lesser soils. This year too, the weather conditions pose a major challenge for us as farmers."
Due to relatively favourable conditions, German farmers were able to sow considerably more winter grain compared to the previous year. According to DBV, a total of 5,86 million hectares of grain were sown. Almost half of that, 2,78 million hectares to be precise, is winter wheat. The area of rapeseed increased slightly to 1,1 million hectares.
'Corn is king'
The USDA area and stock figures came out of the US yesterday. Compared to the March edition of the area report, there were no major changes. Compared to 2024, US farmers have planted 5% more corn. At 95,2 million acres, the corn area this season is the third largest since 1944. According to the USDA, the area of soybeans is 4% smaller than last season and 1% less wheat has been planted. That brings the area of soybeans to 83,4 million acres and wheat to 45,5 million acres. Interest in cotton has declined significantly. According to the USDA, 10,1% less has been planted compared to a year earlier, at 10 million acres.
The June corn inventory held by U.S. farmers, gatherers and processors is down 4,64 percent from the month a year ago, at 7 billion bushels. That's offset by a 4 percent increase in soybeans in storage and a 22 percent increase in wheat. Total U.S. wheat inventory is estimated at 851 million bushels, with 184 million tons still in growers' silos, according to USDA data.
Wheat harvest is not going fast
The harvest of the new wheat is also in full swing in America. According to this week's Crop Progress report, 37% of the area of winter wheat has been harvested. This means that threshing is somewhat slow compared to other years. The five-year average for this week is 42% harvested and last year wheat growers were already halfway through threshing with 52% harvested. The wheat situation has deteriorated slightly. 48% of the area of winter wheat is rated good or excellent, compared to 49% last week. For spring wheat, this is 53% this week, compared to 54% last week.
The condition of corn in the US has improved somewhat compared to last week. 73% of the area is in good or excellent condition compared to 70% last week. The USDA has made few adjustments for the condition of soybeans. Of the area of soybeans, 66% is in good or excellent condition, which is the same as last week.