The relatively good yield forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere are less favorable for wheat prices. Furthermore, analysts say global demand for wheat is moderate. Brazil is not experiencing a lack of demand for soybeans. The country is on track to further surpass last season's soybean export record.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,25 at €195,75 per tonne. On the Chicago exchange, wheat rose slightly, up 0,6% to $5.43 per bushel. Corn closed down 1,7% at $4.11 per bushel. Soybeans fell 7 cents to close at $10.24 per bushel.
According to analysts, sufficient supply and moderate demand remain the story of the wheat market. This was further confirmed by the European Commission's export figures. According to preliminary figures, 2024 million tons of wheat were exported in the 25/20,33 season, compared to 31,07 million tons the previous season. For the 2025/26 season, SovEcon increased its export forecast for Russia by 2,1 million tons to 42,9 million tons. This is still below the USDA's forecast for Russian wheat exports of 45 million tons.
The USDA will release an update to the Wasde report next Friday. The trade community assumes this will not lead to a turnaround in the grain market. The US wheat yield could be slightly reduced due to the drought in the northern part of the country. On the other hand, the growing season for corn and soybeans is progressing relatively smoothly.
Good wheat year
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects a larger-than-expected wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. "Favorable growing conditions could push European wheat production above 138 million tons, compared to 122 million tons a year earlier," writes Dennis Voznesenki, the bank's agricultural economist, in his weekly report. He is also optimistic about the Russian wheat yield. The harvest is estimated at 83 to 85 million tons, compared to 78 to 79 tons in previous forecasts.
The final wheat stock for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 271 million tons. This compares to 2024 million tons for the 25/264 season. From a grower's perspective, the good harvest is less favorable for the price. Due to the relatively large stock, the market's upside is limited, according to the bank. There are no truly major problems threatening yields in any of the major wheat-growing regions. This reinforces the somewhat tepid market sentiment.
Demand for soy
Demand for Brazilian soybean exports is certainly not subdued. According to LSEG, Brazil has exported 67,4 million tons of soybeans since February. This is 3% higher than last season, when a record was set. China is by far Brazil's largest exporter, with 47,6 million tons. Incidentally, Brazil exported 169 million tons of soybeans this season, 22 million tons more than the previous season.