Analysis Grains & Commodities
Are the days of bumper harvests in the EU over?
The initial barley and wheat harvest results in the Netherlands and France are good, especially compared to last year. A true record harvest is not on the horizon in the EU, according to Copa Cogeca. In fact, grain yields over the past five years have lagged significantly behind historical benchmarks from previous decades. In the US, corn is doing well, according to the USDA's new Crop Progress report.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €3,75 at €197,25 per tonne. Wheat also declined on the CBoT, closing 1,3% lower at $5.34 per bushel. Corn rose 2,4% to $4.12¾ per bushel in the last trading session. Soybeans fell below $10 per bushel, settling at $9.97 per bushel.
The progress of the wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere is putting pressure on prices, according to several analysts. The relatively good yields certainly don't help from a grower's perspective. The European umbrella organization of farmers' organizations, Copa Cogeca, estimates the total grain harvest in the EU for the 2025 harvest year at 275,2 million tons. This means the harvest will be 6,9% larger than the previous year. This is partly due to a 2,2% expansion of the area under cultivation. The yield per hectare is 4,6% higher, according to Copa Cogeca's calculations.
Although the 2025 harvest shows a clear recovery compared to the 2024 harvest, the association notes that it is not a peak harvest. The five-year average stands at 276,6 million tons. "The past five seasons have consistently fallen short of historical benchmarks, meaning that even this year's 'recovery' is well below the level of previous decades. In this context, 2025 should be seen as a relative stabilization after a period of chronic underperformance," Copa Cogeca writes in its explanation of the figures.
Russian wheat on the rise
While wheat prices on western futures markets were under pressure, Ikar raised the price for Russian wheat. The price of wheat destined for export rose by $4 to $229 per tonne. Last week, Russia exported 160.000 tonnes, compared to 100.000 a week earlier, according to market research firm SovEcon. The firm expects Russia to export 2,1 to 2,6 million tonnes of grain in July. This is well below the 3,9 million tonnes that left the country in July 2024.
Meanwhile, in the US, combine harvesters are tirelessly working on winter wheat. 63% of the area has now been harvested, according to this week's new Crop Progress report. This means the harvest is 1 percentage point behind the five-year average. Incidentally, 70% of the area had already been threshed this week last year. The condition of spring wheat and barley has improved compared to last week, according to the USDA. 54% of the spring wheat area now has a good or excellent rating, compared to 49% last week. Last week, wheat was much better, with 77% rated good or excellent. For spring barley, 44% of the area has a good or excellent rating, compared to 42% a week earlier.
The USDA has left corn condition unchanged, with 74% of the acreage rated good or excellent. In terms of growth, corn in the US is slightly ahead of the five-year average. In 34% of the acreage, the cob is on the plant, compared to 33% in the five-year average. In 7% of the acreage, the kernels are already in the dough stage, compared to 5% on average. The soybean condition has improved compared to last week, with 70% of the acreage now rated good or excellent, compared to 66% last week. 47% of the soybean acreage is in or has flowered, which is equal to the five-year average.