Rapeseed price under pressure due to harvest expectations

The European Union is heading for a significantly better rapeseed harvest this season. According to the latest estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), production this year will reach 19,5 million tons. This is 15% more than last year and 7% above the five-year average. The expected yield per hectare is 3,26 tons, a 10% increase compared to last year. The harvested area is estimated at 6 million hectares, 5% more than a year ago. This means both yield and area are above the multi-year average.

Favorable weather conditions in Western and Central Europe have contributed significantly to this. In France, traditionally one of Europe's largest rapeseed producers, yields are higher than initially expected. Romania is also experiencing an exceptionally good season and appears poised for a record harvest. The situation in Ukraine is highly regionally dependent. The spring of 2025, in particular, brought persistent drought to the eastern regions, which has had negative consequences for both winter cereals and rapeseed.

Partly due to the positive harvest forecast, rapeseed prices are under pressure. On the futures market, the price fell by almost €40 to €467,50 per tonne in the last week of June. This is a significant drop compared to the peak earlier that month, when the price broke through the €500 per tonne barrier. The price pressure is partly due to increased supply on the European market, but international factors also play a role. Uncertainties on the global market, including volatile production forecasts in Canada and oil price trends, contribute to the more negative sentiment. 

Since July, the futures market price has remained relatively stable. Since the beginning of July, the futures market price has fluctuated between €460 and €470, with the exchange closing yesterday (Monday, July 14) at €465,75.