Good, but not as great as it seemed—that's more or less the conclusion that can be drawn from the wheat crop tour in America. A similar conclusion, but with slightly different reasons, could also apply to wheat in northern Europe.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2,50 at €197 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat showed a slight gain, closing 1 cent higher at $5.41½ per bushel. Corn closed 0,8% higher at $4.01¾ per bushel. Soybeans, unlike grains, fell slightly on the Chicago exchange, closing 10.04 cents lower at $XNUMX¼ per bushel.
The Wheat Quality Council has announced the results of its three-day Wheat Crop Tour in North Dakota and Minnesota. The organization estimates the average yield in the region at 49 bushels per acre. Last year, the yield was 54,5 bushels per acre. "I thought the wheat looked better than that," said Dave Green, who was involved in the tour on behalf of the Wheat Quality Council, during the closing meeting. Far north, near the Canadian border, the crop showed signs of drought damage, but otherwise, Green said, the winter wheat looked good. Nick Skinner of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association noted the very even appearance of the wheat throughout the region and was surprised that the yield forecast was somewhat lower. "It's not a 'bin-buster' (record crop), but it's still a good harvest."
The spring wheat is generally doing well and has few pests and diseases this season, the tour participants concluded. It will still be a while before the combines can be put into the spring wheat fields in North Dakota. In a few weeks, the wheat in the Red River Valley will be ripe, and it could take up to five weeks for the spring wheat in the northern part of the state to reach that stage.
Obstacles
For European grain exporters, the weak dollar remains a difficult hurdle to overcome. While the dollar rose yesterday, we can conclude that this had little effect on the Matif. The good yields coming in from large parts of Western Europe are further reinforcing the somewhat subdued sentiment on the wheat market.
The changeable weather we're currently experiencing isn't really having a dent in the market. A large portion of the wheat has already been harvested in France, but much remains to be done in large parts of Germany. A well-established crop can withstand quite a bit, but getting wet and then drying out again isn't good for quality/hectoliter weight. If the wheat has started lodging, then bolting can, of course, also become a problem. Looking at the calendar, it's still early in the season, but – according to various sources – judging by the crop's stage, we're two or three weeks ahead. This doesn't mean that if the weather continues to be unsettled for another week, it will all go south, but it's also not certain that a bumper harvest has been achieved, as some suggest.