Dutch growers with fixed grain stocks have a very different perspective, but futures market participants see the weather as posing little threat to yields. Incidentally, the Netherlands isn't the only European country where much remains to be done. In the US, growers are well advanced in their harvest, according to the new Crop Progress report.
On the Matif, the September wheat contract closed €3,75 higher at €199,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also saw a modest gain of 5.38 cents to $5½ per bushel. Corn fell 3.93 cents to close at $10¾ per bushel. Soybeans closed 9.88 cents lower at $XNUMX¾ per bushel.
The weather in Europe isn't exactly conducive to threshing. This isn't just affecting Dutch growers; it's affecting large parts of Europe. A shower is welcome for crops that still need to mature, like potatoes or beets (provided it's not too heavy, of course), but it's certainly not ideal threshing weather. Showers or rain are expected across almost the entire continent. Analysts aren't yet worried about the impact on the quality of the ripened wheat, but if the weather forecasts are accurate, harvesting will resume this week between the showers. In Southern Europe, the wheat harvest is nearly complete, but further north, there's still plenty to be done, according to some sources.
80% is in
In the US, 80% of the winter wheat has now been harvested, according to the USDA's Crop Progress report. This puts the harvest slightly behind last season and the five-year average, both of which stood at 81% harvested this week. The spring wheat harvest has made a small start, with 1% harvested. Spring barley has also been harvested, with 1% harvested.
Corn is in slightly worse shape than last week. 73% of the acreage is rated good or excellent, compared to 74% last week. Just over a quarter, or 26%, of the US corn acreage is in the grain-filling stage. Last year, that figure was 28%, and the five-year average is 24%. Soybean condition has improved slightly compared to last week. 70% is rated good or excellent, compared to 68% last time.
Free trade
When it comes to trade policy, it was Trump's deal with the EU on import tariffs that made headlines. Argentine President Milei announced he would reduce export duties on meat and other agricultural products. The duty on soy will be reduced from 33% to 26%, on corn from 12% to 9,5%, and on soybean meal and oil from 31% to 24,5%. Meat exporters will have to pay a 5% export duty, compared to the current 6,75%. At a livestock inspection in Buenos Aires, Milei called the export duties a plague that should never have existed. "These reductions are permanent and will not be reversed as long as I'm in power. Eliminating export tariffs is our government's obsession."
The export duties may be a thorn in Milei's side, but they are also desperately needed to balance the government budget, another priority of the eccentric Argentine president. Milei has already significantly scaled back government intervention in the agricultural sector, but the duties remained the elephant in the room. With grain prices at relatively low levels, the reduction of the export duty is being welcomed by the agricultural sector, according to several local sources. The goal of some trade unions remains to eliminate the duties altogether.