Analysis Grains & Commodities
Patience is a virtue when harvesting grain
The harvest season got off to a flying start, and in the south of the country, most of the wheat is gone. Where grain is frozen, patience is now a virtue. This problem isn't unique to Dutch growers, by the way. In the US, wheat is a bit of a worry due to drought during the growing season. Corn and soybeans have consistently received their water on time so far.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2 at €196,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed half a cent lower at $5.23¼ per bushel. Corn closed 0,6% higher at $3.94 per bushel. Soybeans fell 6 cents in the last trading session, closing at $9.61¾ per bushel.
As smoothly as the grain harvest started in large parts of Europe, it's now proceeding slowly. Conditions are unsettled in large parts of Europe. If the weather forecasts are to be believed, this won't change until early next week. While this moisture isn't bad for crops still growing, such as potatoes, corn, or beets, it's a nuisance for the grain harvest.
In southern Russia, southern Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the weather is more favorable in this regard. It's dry there and will remain dry for the next week to ten days, according to reports. The wheat harvest in Poland will be 3% higher than last season. This is according to the Polish Statistical Office, which anticipates a harvest of 12,8 million tons. The barley harvest will be lower, at 2,8 million tons in the forecast for this season, compared to 3,1 million tons last season. Total grain production in Poland is estimated by the statistical office at 25,4 million tons. This is comparable to last season.
Drought in the US
In the US, the major spring wheat growing regions are slightly less dry than last week. The latest drought monitor shows 38% of spring wheat growing in a dry region, compared to 43% last week. Last year, this was 12% of the area this week. Whether the rain will arrive in time for the harvest is another matter. The wheat is already ripening rapidly. According to various sources, the precipitation is arriving just too late to be of any real benefit.
Aside from wheat growing regions, drought doesn't really affect other US arable crops. Seven percent of corn is grown in drought-prone regions, and soybeans are grown in drought-prone regions, respectively. While not insignificant, these figures are certainly nothing to worry about.
