Analysis Grains & Commodities
High expectations for corn in America
Finally, summer weather is returning to our region, if the weather reports are to be believed. With a bit of luck, the grain harvest can resume. Slow harvest progress isn't limited to the northern part of the country. The USDA also released its Crop Progress report. It's proving to be an exceptional growing season so far for the flagship of American arable farming.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €1 at €197,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed unchanged at $5.16¾ per bushel. Corn declined slightly, closing 2½ cents lower at $3.87 per bushel. Soybeans were up, closing 7¼ cents higher at $9.69 per bushel.
The grain harvest isn't going very well in the north of the country yet. But after today, according to the weather forecast, we'll have several warmer and, even more importantly for wheat, drier days until at least the weekend. With a bit of luck, the combines can then be brought out again. In the south of the country, with a bit of luck, the last of the spring wheat can be harvested.
A slow harvest isn't a problem exclusive to growers in the northern Netherlands. In Ukraine, too, the pace is significantly slower compared to last season, according to an update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs. So far this season, 15,5 million tons of grain have been harvested, compared to 25,3 million tons last season. A total of 4,4 million hectares have been threshed, compared to 7,2 million hectares this week last year. Ukrainian growers have now harvested a total of 11,4 million tons of wheat and 3,6 million tons of barley. According to the ministry, 39% of the area under grain and legumes in Ukraine has been harvested.
The price of Russian wheat is under some pressure, partly due to the progress of the harvest. Ikar lowered the price by $3 to $236 per ton.
US winter wheat harvest on schedule
In the US, the winter wheat harvest is well underway. 86% of the area has been harvested, compared to 87% this week last year and in the five-year average, according to the Crop Progress report. There are some concerns about spring wheat, however. 48% of the area has been rated good or excellent, compared to 49% last week. Some believe the USDA's yield forecast for spring wheat is too high due to the drought. Threshing of spring wheat has also begun. 5% has now been harvested, compared to 9% in the five-year average.
It might not be a banner year for wheat growers in America, but corn is doing exceptionally well. According to the USDA, 73% of the acreage is rated good or excellent. In terms of growth, corn is fairly in line with the multi-year average. It's slightly behind average in terms of panicle emergence, but slightly ahead in terms of kernel filling.
