Trump once again caused considerable unrest during the recent trade session. Now, the US president wants China to import more soy from the US. A meeting between Putin and Trump is also scheduled in Alaska, which was once sold to the US as Russian America. The USDA also released new figures yesterday in its Crop Progress report.
On the Matif, the September wheat contract closed yesterday €1,75 lower at €194,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains had a somewhat stronger wind in their sails. Wheat saw its gains limited to half a cent, to $5.15 per bushel. Corn rose somewhat more strongly, closing 2 cents higher at $3.85 per bushel. However, the biggest gainer wasn't in grains last trading session, but in soybeans. The August contract gained 22 cents to $9.89 per bushel.
The unrest in the soybean market was largely caused by US President Trump. China and the US do not yet have a trade deal, and the temporary suspension of import tariffs expires today. In the lead-up to an extension of the trade restrictions (announced yesterday afternoon US time), Trump posted a message on his own social media platform that China should import four times as much soy from the US.
Opinions differ on how seriously Trump's message should be taken. China doesn't yet have any US soybean orders on its books for the 2025/26 season. As some have noted, four times zero is still zero. Nevertheless, there's good demand for soybean meal, US exports are booming, and US soybean supplies are tightening. All in all, a rally like the one we saw yesterday may be a bit extreme, but it does have some fundamental foundations.
The wheat market is actually being somewhat affected by Trump's actions, according to some analysts. The US president has a meeting scheduled with his Russian counterpart Putin in Alaska. Exactly what ideas both men have for peace in Ukraine are not yet clear, but according to some sources, the possibility of a return of some calm to the Black Sea region is dampening the wheat market. The price of Russian wheat is actually rising slightly. Partly due to the Kremlin's removal of the export tax, the Ikare price has risen by $3 to $239 per tonne.
The USDA also released its weekly Crop Progress report update yesterday. Corn condition declined by 1 percentage point, with 72% of the acreage now rated good or excellent. This means corn in the US remains in excellent condition. Soybeans are also doing well, with 68% of the acreage rated good or excellent, compared to 69% last week.
The winter wheat harvest is slowing down somewhat. 90% of the area has now been harvested, compared to 86% last week. This week last year, 92% had been threshed, and the five-year average is 91%. The spring wheat harvest has made a bigger difference: 16% has been harvested, compared to 5% last week. 49% of the spring wheat has been rated good or excellent, compared to 48% last week. The barley harvest has also really begun. 18% of the barley area in the US has been harvested.