2025 peak corn harvest in prospect

The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0,75 higher at €196,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat took a step back, closing 3¾ cents lower at $5.02¾ per bushel. Corn closed 3.83 cent lower at $1.20 per bushel. Soybeans also moved mostly sideways, down XNUMX cents to $XNUMX¾ per bushel.

The meeting between US President Trump and Putin last Friday, and the visit by Zelensky and a host of European leaders yesterday, also didn't go unnoticed by the grain market. On Friday, it seemed like the coin was falling in Putin's favor, but Zelensky's visit went much more smoothly than his previous visit to the Oval Office. Issues that previously seemed off the table are now on the table, such as Ukraine's ceding of territory and military security guarantees for Ukraine from the EU and the US. Peace is still a long way off, but at least some movement is emerging. The EU's proposal of a new series of sanctions if Putin persists in his demands could have the greatest short-term consequences for the grain market.

Better than expected
There's certainly plenty of wheat in Russia, according to market bureau Ikar. The bureau has raised its harvest forecast by 1 million tons to 83,5 million tons. The export forecast for this season has been raised even further, from 39 million tons to 42,5 million tons. According to Ikar, the price for Russian wheat has fallen slightly, by $0,50 to $238,50 per ton. SovEcon expects grain exports to recover, with a total of 4,5 million tons of wheat exported in August. This compares to 2,9 million tons in July.

In Ukraine, the rains that fell in July have been beneficial for the country's corn production. Asap Agri has raised its corn harvest forecast from 27,6 million tons to 30,9 million tons. In several regions, corn is on track for record yields. The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs is expecting a corn harvest of 28 million tons, and Ikar is expecting 27,5 million tons.

Top corn
Ukraine isn't the only country experiencing a good corn year. Corn is also doing well in the US, with 71% of the acreage rated good or excellent. Last week, that figure was 72%, according to the USDA's weekly Crop Progress report.

The condition of soybeans in the US has remained unchanged from last week, with 68% of the acreage rated good or excellent. US growers are well underway with the threshing of winter wheat. 94% of the winter wheat acreage has been harvested, compared to 95% in the five-year average and 96% this week last year. The spring wheat harvest is on track, with 36% threshed, similar to the five-year average. This week last year, 29% was harvested. The condition of the spring wheat still in place has improved by 1 percentage point, to 50% of the acreage rated good or excellent, according to the USDA.