It's either too dry or the rain is falling at a time when growers can't use it. That, in short, is the picture painted for European arable farming in the Mars bulletin. Wheat prices are under pressure in Russia. Some analysts believe the progress of the harvest is a factor. Trump has once again spoken out regarding Russia's war in Ukraine.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €1,50 at €195 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains showed a modest gain in the last trading session. Wheat closed 2 cents higher at $5.06¾ per bushel. Corn gained 1 cent to $3.89¼ per bushel. Soybeans took a step back, closing 11 cents lower at $10.25½ per bushel.
The JRC, the European Commission's scientific bureau, has revised its EU soft wheat yield forecast upwards by 1% compared to last month to 6,15 tons per hectare in the new Mars Bulletin. This puts the wheat yield 7% above the five-year average. For grain maize, the JRC has lowered its forecast by 3% compared to last month to 6,93 tons per hectare. This puts the grain maize yield 2% below the five-year average.
Heat, dryness and wetness
Heat in southern Europe, coupled with a lack of moisture in the southeast, is costing yields in crops sown this spring, such as maize, according to the JRC. Further north, in countries including Germany, Denmark, and Poland, rain in August delayed the harvest of winter grains. Crops that ripen later benefited from the rain. The relatively few days this summer when the mercury rose above 30 degrees Celsius also contributed to growth.
In Russia, the wheat price is under some pressure. Ikar lowered the price by $3,50 to $235 per tonne FOB (delivered by ship). The wheat harvest is particularly advanced in Russia's southern provinces, and according to some analysts, this is putting pressure on the market. Meanwhile, Trump is also making his presence felt, announcing yesterday that he believes Putin and Zelensky should meet. True to the American president's tradition, he said there will be consequences for Russia if Putin refuses. Trump added that he will give both men two weeks to meet.
Almost ripe
Other news from the US is the weekly update of the Crop Progress report. Only minor adjustments have been made to the condition of the corn. The area rated good or excellent remained unchanged from last week at 71%. Corn is already starting to mature, with 7% of the area in the final stages before harvest. This is in line with the five-year average. The US soybean crop has improved slightly, with 69% of the area rated good or excellent, compared to 68% last week.
The harvest of small grains, To use American jargon, the harvest is largely complete. Winter wheat is 98% harvested, which is equal to the five-year average. Arable farmers are just over halfway through the spring wheat harvest, at 53%. The barley harvest is slightly further along, at 56%. The oat area is 80% harvested, which is equal to the five-year average.