Analysis Grains & Commodities
Early sowing is punished in Brazil
The wheat market continues to struggle. FrancAgriMer slightly lowered its forecast for ending grain stocks, but French exports to countries outside the EU remain unchanged. Trump criticized China again yesterday. "If China doesn't buy soy from us, we won't buy cooking oil from them," was the American president's brief message. Soybean sowing has started early in Brazil. However, drought is causing problems for growers there, and some sources believe some fields will still need to be reseeded.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €190 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 1 cents lower at $4.98¾ per bushel. Corn showed a slight increase, closing 3¾ cents higher at $4.16¾ per bushel. Soybeans remained unchanged at $10.06½ per bushel on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
FranceAgriMer has slightly lowered its expected closing stocks for wheat, barley, and maize for the 2025/26 season. The French government agency is doing this because it claims there is good demand for these three grains. The export forecast for French wheat to non-EU countries remains unchanged at 7,85 million tons. Exports within the EU have increased by 300.000 tons to 7,04 million tons.
At the European level, wheat exports continue to lag behind last season. According to the latest figures from the European Commission, 5,5 million tons of wheat were exported up to and including October 12, compared to 7,1 million tons last season. Morocco is the largest buyer of European wheat, with 727.000 tons. However, 49% more barley was exported this season compared to last year, reaching 2,4 million tons.
Russian growers lag behind in sowing wheat
In Russia, winter wheat sowing is lagging behind last season. In the major wheat-growing areas of southern Russia, 4,7 million hectares have been sown, compared to 5,1 million hectares at this time last year.
In the US, winter wheat sowing is going smoothly, according to various local sources. Due to the US government shutdown, we don't have the figures normally published by the USDA. The relatively mild weather US growers are experiencing this month could still cause problems for winter wheat later in the winter, according to some sources. If it gets really cold in the US between December and February, the winter wheat, which is developing relatively quickly now, will be more susceptible to wintering.
An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth
The big news for the American market is a new post from Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social. Loosely translated, Trump writes that he believes China is deliberately not buying soy from the US. In retaliation, the US president suggests not importing cooking oil (used edible oil used for biofuels) from China.
China won't be impressed, say several analysts, and it likely won't prompt Beijing to buy more soybeans from the US. Incidentally, US imports of cooking oil from China are already 65% lower this year than the same period last year. Nevertheless, Trump's announcement isn't immediately negative for the US soybean market. Demand for soybean oil may pick up slightly. However, according to some experts, that effect is likely to be very limited.
Sowing soybeans has started early in Brazil. However, in the central region, the crop hasn't gotten off to the start growers had hoped for. After rain early in the season, several growers took the gamble of sowing immediately afterward. However, rainfall failed to materialize in the following weeks. According to some sources, the soybeans are therefore emerging unevenly or not at all. Some growers will therefore have to overseed. This doesn't have much of an impact on the yield potential of soybeans, but it does, of course, incur additional costs for the grower, and the subsequent corn crop is negatively impacted by the delayed soybean sowing and harvesting.