US President Trump certainly wasn't lacking in self-confidence, and his actions in the Middle East certainly haven't diminished that. The Alaska summit has been forgotten, and Trump wants to make another attempt to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump's own trade war is also putting China in a difficult position.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2,25 at €187,75 per tonne. On the Chicago exchange, wheat rose 3¾ cents to $5.02½ per bushel. Corn closed up 5 cents, reaching $4.21¾ per bushel. Soybeans were also in the green, up 4¼ cents to $10.10¾ per bushel.
Egypt has purchased two shiploads of French wheat, according to Reuters news agency, citing sources. Egypt is paying $240 per tonne for the wheat, delivered on board the ship. This doesn't satisfy Egypt's wheat hunger, as the country is also reportedly seeking to buy an as-yet-unknown quantity of wheat from the Black Sea region.
Peacemaker
Trump is becoming more involved in the Black Sea region in another area. Today (Friday, October 17), Ukrainian President Zelensky will visit the Oval Office, the office of the American president in the White House. The question of whether or not to make American Tomahawk missiles available will be a topic of discussion. Prior to the meeting with Zelensky, scheduled for today, Trump called Putin yesterday. In a post on his own social media platform, Truth Social, Trump called it a "very productive conversation." "President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the great achievement of peace in the Middle East, something he said has been dreamed of for centuries. I truly believe that the success in the Middle East will contribute to our negotiations to end the war with Russia/Ukraine," Trump wrote.
Whether peace will actually be reached in the short term remains to be seen. Trump, however, does want a new meeting with Putin in two weeks, likely to take place in Hungary. In any case, the situation seems to have little impact on the grain market. The grain harvest is almost complete in Russia, however. According to Oksana Lut, the Russian Minister of Agriculture, 91% of the grain acreage has been harvested. The total harvest is estimated at 135 million tons, of which 90 million tons are wheat. Russia has the potential to export 50 million tons of grain, according to Lut.
Asia
One customer Russia can count on again is Indonesia. Due to wrangling over Russian wheat access to the Indonesian market, exports were halted for nine months. In early January alone, Russia exported 123.000 tons of wheat to Indonesia. In 2024, Indonesia imported 1,3 million tons of grain (primarily wheat) from Russia. Indonesia, along with China and Egypt, is one of the largest buyers of wheat on the global market.
South of the belt of emerald, In Australia, the relatively dry and warm weather is giving way to a more water-rich climate, according to forecasters. In the southeastern provinces of Victoria and South Australia, only half of the multi-year average rainfall fell locally last month. According to some local sources, wheat and canola suffered somewhat as a result. Rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 millimeters above average are forecast for Australia over the next two weeks. Only Western Australia will see drier than average. The rain has arrived just in time for grains, as grain filling occurs around this time.
To tap into inventory or not?
China and the US have maneuvered each other into a rather difficult position. Trump's pressure to get China to buy soybeans in the US hasn't worked, and China's reluctance means the country still needs to source a substantial volume to avoid having to draw on its own supply. Analysts estimate that China needs 8 to 9 million tons of soybeans for December and January. Normally, this is the period when China buys supplies in the US. However, to get the better of the US, China is primarily buying in South America. In recent weeks, Chinese buyers have secured substantial volumes in Argentina. In Brazil, the largest soybean producer, exporters have placed a substantial premium on the soybeans. Growers are busy sowing for the new harvest (which isn't happening automatically yet), and according to local sources, there's little interest in selling. Chinese buyers consider a premium of just under $3 per bushel over the CBoT to be excessive. The result could well be that China will be forced to draw on its own supply.