The International Grain Council (IGC) has raised its wheat production estimate for 2025/26 to 827 million tons, marking the largest increase since 2019/20.
Normally, global wheat production increases by just under 10 million tons annually. This season, IGC predicts an increase of 27 million tons, a jump that's about three times larger than average.
Last month, the wheat harvest forecast was also significantly revised from 811 to 819 million tons. This month, another 8 million tons will be added. These adjustments are the result of improved harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and more favorable conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. "Recent figures confirm better-than-expected yields for several major producers," IGC explains.
For wheat growers, the adjustments of the past two months have been significant setbacks. This puts further pressure on the market. Livestock farmers can count on cheap wheat mixing into feed. For animal feed, the additional problem is that barley harvests are also larger than previously anticipated.
Consumption increases only slightly
The effect is exacerbated by the fact that consumption cannot keep pace with the increase in production. The wheat consumption forecast has been increased by 1 million tons to 820 million tons. Last month, the IGC still assumed that consumption and production would keep pace this season.
Figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) are still missing because the government is not producing new figures due to a government shutdown. In September, the USDA published a harvest forecast of 816,2 million tons of wheat in its Wasde report.