The summit later this week between Trump and Xi Xi is causing a stir in the grain market. A small advance toward an agreement is already being made, though that's far from certain. The winter grain season for the 2026 harvest is off to a good start. That, at least, is the conclusion we can draw from yesterday's Mars Bulletin.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €3,25 higher at €193,50 per tonne. Wheat also jumped 13 cents on the CBoT to $5.26 per bushel. Corn also rose, but its gains were limited to 5 cents to $4.28 per bushel. Soybeans closed 25 cents higher at $10.67 per bushel last trading session.
Analysts attribute the positive mood in the grain market largely to positive developments surrounding the trade agreement negotiations between China and the US. According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, China has committed to making substantial purchases of soybeans from the US. Trump announced that he will travel to South Korea next Thursday to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi.
No security
Although optimism is beginning to prevail in the grain market, several experts point out that a trade agreement between China and the US is far from a certainty. For example, last Friday the Trump administration announced it will launch a new investigation into trade flows. With this, Trump is opening the door to new import tariffs. This increases the pressure on the already tense relations ahead of the summit in South Korea, according to some analysts.
The US-China relationship is naturally being closely watched, but trade agreements have already been reached with other countries during the summit in South Korea. Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have reached an agreement with the US in recent days on mutual trade policy, according to various sources. The US soybean and corn growers' unions, among others, have reacted cautiously positively to this news.
News from Russia is having little impact on the market. Ikar lowered the price for Russian wheat by $0,50 to $230,50 per tonne. At the same time, the market bureau is raising its export forecast for Russian wheat in October by 500.000 tons to 5,5 million tons. SovEcon kept its export forecast for October unchanged at 5,1 million tons.
Good conditions in Europe
In Europe, the sowing of winter grains is largely proceeding smoothly, according to the JRC, the scientific bureau of the European Commission, in the new Mars Bulletin. Only in northern Spain and Portugal is the start less than desired due to drought. On the other side of Europe, in Romania and Bulgaria, the harvest and sowing of winter grains are being delayed due to wet conditions. In Scandinavia, France, Germany, and Poland, among other countries, conditions are good. The winter crops were sown on time and are emerging smoothly and evenly. In the Benelux, the maize and potato harvest is almost complete, according to the JRC. The planned area of winter grain is already in the ground in the Benelux.
By the shutdown For the fourth time, we're missing the US government's weekly Crop Progress report. A Reuters poll shows that respondents estimate that 72% of the US corn and 84% of the soybeans have been harvested. This week last year, 81% of the corn and 89% of the soybeans had been harvested. According to Reuters, 84% of the planned wheat acreage is in the ground.