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Russians to accelerate wheat exports in October
Russian wheat exports increased significantly in October. According to the Russian market consultancy SovEcon, a total of 5,1 million tons were exported this month, compared to 4,8 million tons in September.
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For the first time since November 2024, Russia's wheat exports have exceeded the average for the month in question in recent years. The five-year average for October is 4,5 million tons.
The increase is attributed to recovering global wheat demand and better margins for exporters. Major buyers of Russian wheat have significantly increased their purchases in recent months. For example, the Algerian state-owned company OAIC bought approximately 600.000 tons of wheat last week, while the Saudi Arabian grain association GFSA bought 455.000 tons earlier this month and ordered another 500.000 tons through affiliated companies.
Other major buyers, such as Egypt and Turkey, have also significantly increased their imports. Russian exports to Egypt amounted to 0,8 million tons in September, the highest level since February 2025. Exports to Turkey reached 0,7 million tons, the highest volume since November 2023.
Competitors are losing ground
While Russia is increasing its exports, volumes from other major exporters are lagging. SovEcon expects Ukraine to export only 1,5 million tons of wheat in October, compared to 2,1 million tons in September. The European Union is also expected to see a decline, with estimated exports of 1,7 million tons, also lower than the 2,1 million tons of the previous month.
Margins for Russian exporters improved slightly in October. While negative at the beginning of October, margins stood at around $4 per tonne by the end of the month.
However, limitations remain: the weather on the Black Sea poses a risk at this time of year. The increasing frequency of storms can hinder grain shipments and reduce export volumes.
Estimate for this season
In September, SovEcon estimated total Russian wheat exports for the current season at 43,4 million tons, while the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates 45,0 million tons.
According to SovEcon, the recent acceleration in exports points to stronger demand from key import markets. However, the question is whether this momentum will last: traders are anticipating the possibility that buyers will scale back their purchases again if prices fall later in the season.