The cryptocurrency's volatility is still manageable compared to what's happening with soy, you might say with a wink. China is once again fully entering the market for American agricultural products, according to Donald Trump. Order a new tractor now, Trump advises farmers in his country. In Russia, snow is disrupting the last of the grain harvest.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0,75 lower at €191,25 per bushel. On the CBoT, wheat retreated after rising earlier this week. Wheat closed 8 cents lower at $5.24¼ per bushel. Corn also fell 3¾ cents to $4.30¼ per bushel. Soybeans were truly all over the place during the trading session. There was a 44-cent difference between the intraday high and low. There are plenty of days when the range stays below 10 cents. Soybeans ultimately closed 11 cents higher at $10.91¼ per bushel.
The fact that the soybean market is somewhat volatile, to say the least, has everything to do with the meeting between Trump and Xi last Thursday. With Trump's usual bravado, he gave his meeting with Xi a 12 on a scale of 0 to 10. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote that he has Xi's commitment that China will buy large quantities of soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products. This is good news for American farmers, according to Trump. "Farmers need to buy more land and bigger tractors immediately," Trump continued.
Trump isn't very specific about the precise agreements. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later provided hard figures. For the 2025/26 season, China has committed to buying 12 million tons of soybeans. According to Bessent, these 12 million tons must be completed by January at the latest. Over the next three years, China will purchase at least 25 million tons of soybeans from the US. Initially, the market reacted enthusiastically, but that euphoria quickly faded. During Trump's previous term, China also made commitments to import agricultural goods from the US. These agreements were not honored. "Seeing is believing," is the gist of the narrative from various analysts. The fact that there are some doubts about demand from China is particularly evident in the grain sector. Demand from China is nowhere mentioned for either wheat or corn.
Reuters reports, citing anonymous sources, that China has purchased 250.000 tons of soybeans for delivery this year and early 2026. This report, like the rumor earlier this week about the purchase of 180.000 tons, has not been confirmed through official channels.
Low export rate Ukraine
Moderate demand for grain is also a problem for Ukraine. Grain exports are down 36,7% compared to last season, according to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. As of October 29, Ukraine has exported 6,2 million tons of wheat, 20% less than in the same period last season. Barley exports are down 37% at 1 million tons, and maize exports are down 65% at 1,6 million tons.
Ukrainian farmers are behind last season in sowing winter crops. A total of 5,35 million hectares have been sown, compared to 5,7 million hectares this week last year. Ukrainian growers have sown 3,86 million hectares of winter wheat so far this season, compared to 4,1 million hectares this time last year. 82% of the planned area for winter crops is in the ground.
Snow
Russia has harvested 137 million tons of gross grain and legumes this season, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told the Duma, the Russian parliament. The net yield for this season remains unchanged at 135 million tons. About 6% of the acreage remains to be harvested. In Siberia, however, the weather is not cooperating. Due to early snow, some wheat may not be harvested. According to the minister, corn is also still frozen, but Lut says that hasn't been lost directly due to the snow.
The European Commission has revised its grain yield forecast for the 2025/26 season upwards by 1,5 million tons compared to the previous September forecast. The wheat forecast has been increased by 1,2 million tons to 133,4 million tons. The barley harvest is expected to be 200.000 tons higher, at 55,9 million tons. The maize yield has been left unchanged by the Commission at 56,8 million tons.