Soybeans dominated the market in recent days. That changed during the last trading session, as Bloomberg reported China was reportedly entering the wheat market. Wheat prices surged following the CBoT report. Several analysts warn that this poses a risk for American exporters.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €075 higher at €193,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat rose more strongly, up 9 cents to $5.43 per bushel. Corn also saw a slight increase, but its gain was limited to 2 cents to $4.34 per bushel. Soybeans rose the most on the Chicago exchange, up 20 cents to $11.19 cents.
This time, it's not soybeans that are in the spotlight after talks between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Xi, but wheat. Bloomberg news agency broke the news that China wants to buy American wheat. According to Bloomberg, the amount is between 200.000 and 400.000 tons. The news had a significant impact on the Chicago stock exchange. Some experts doubt whether the rally is entirely justified. China typically has already secured its target volume before the rumors are released. The rise has a strong "buy the rumor, sell the fact" element. This is a (risky) strategy: buying in when a rumor breaks and exiting again when the facts emerge.
Competition is lurking
This past weekend, the Trump administration released a Factsheet The results of the preliminary deal between China and the US following last week's summit are being briefly summarized. What some analysts are not paying much attention to is that China has purchased ten shiploads of soybeans from Brazil for delivery in December 2025 and another ten for delivery next spring. Due to the rally in soybeans last week, US soybeans are now more expensive than Brazilian soybeans. This could dampen sentiment in the soybean market in the coming days.
According to some experts, the rise in US wheat prices could prove beneficial for European, Ukrainian, and Russian exporters. US wheat was very competitively priced on the global market. Now that prices have risen sharply there, and the market in Europe and the Black Sea region is not following suit, our wheat is becoming more attractive to global buyers. SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian grain exports by 400.000 tons to 43,8 million tons.