The Kremlin may want to nearly double the grain export quota to 20 million tons. According to the draft document, the quota would include corn and barley in addition to wheat. In the US, trade remains dominated by China. Beijing confirmed yesterday that import tariffs on American agricultural products will be reduced.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €194,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed up 4 cents to $5.54¾ per bushel. Corn also rose 3 cents to $4.35¼ per bushel. However, the biggest gainer on the CBoT last trading session was soybeans. Soybeans closed up 11 cents at $11.19¾ per bushel.
The Russian government is reportedly considering introducing a 20 million-ton grain export quota for the second half of the marketing year (the period from February 15 to June 30, to be precise). This is according to Reuters, according to a draft document prepared by the Russian Grain Union. Last season, there was an export quota for wheat of 10,6 million tons. The Kremlin is now considering including corn and barley in the export quota.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture's forecast, Russia has up to 50 million tons of grain to export this season. This represents approximately 38% of the total Russian grain harvest. Of the total exports, the ministry says, wheat is by far the most important grain, at 44 million tons. According to some analysts, Russia's consideration of expanding exports played a role in the subdued sentiment on the Matif.
China is moving
In Chicago, confidence in the improved trade relationship between China and the US is growing. Beijing confirmed that the tariff on US agricultural products will be reduced. However, a 13% import tariff on US soybeans remains in effect. Combined with last week's rally in soybeans on the CBoT, this makes US soybeans relatively expensive, according to several experts. The fact that China has secured substantial volumes of soybeans in Brazil in recent days for delivery in the coming months is also having little impact on the market, according to some analysts. The fact that China has purchased wheat from the US for the first time since October 2024 may partly explain this optimism. In total, China reportedly purchased nearly 500.000 tons of soft red wheat from the US.
Argentina has approved a $277 million investment in a new port terminal on the Parana River in Santa Fe province. The Parana River is a key logistics corridor for transporting grains and soybeans from growing regions to the rest of the world. During harvest, when supplies are high, processing at seaports becomes congested. This results in traders and farmers missing out on sales. With the new terminal, which will provide additional storage and faster loading equipment, Argentina aims to address this bottleneck.
Changeable weather
In Australia, the weather isn't looking very favorable for the grain harvest. Relatively cool and unsettled weather is forecast for the next two weeks, especially in the southeast of the country. According to some local sources, the winter wheat harvest is likely to be delayed as a result. Rain on a crop that's almost ripe isn't ideal for quality either.