The French grain maize harvest is even smaller than expected. The Agreste statistics office of the French Ministry of Agriculture is further lowering its forecast for this year.
In its latest report, Agreste estimates 13,4 million tons. This quantity is 317.000 tons (2,3%) lower than the estimate from a month ago. According to the service, corn has suffered greatly from the drought and heat this summer.
Grain maize in southern and western France, in particular, has suffered from the unfavorable conditions. In some areas, yields are 30% lower than in 2024. In the north, however, there are regions where yields are higher than last year.
On an annual basis, the French maize harvest is almost 10% lower. This also means production is 2% lower than the average of the past five years. The impact is particularly felt in the south and west of France, where yields on non-irrigated fields are up to 2 tons per hectare lower than normal.
Lower yields
In terms of area, corn cultivation is no smaller than it will be in 2024. So that's not the issue. It's purely the lower yields that are causing the lower production. According to Agreste, the national average remains stuck at 8,4 tons per hectare. This means yields are almost 1 ton (10%) lower than last year.
Agreste is not disclosing the quality of the French maize. In recent weeks, nearly 500 dairy farms in the Northern Netherlands were blocked after elevated aflatoxin levels were found in feed derived from French maize. This feed was removed from the dairy farms and replaced with alternative feed. The farms were subsequently released.
Consequences in the European Union
The French Ministry of Statistics has calculated what the lower estimated French harvest means for the total grain maize harvest in the European Union. Production in many other major maize-producing countries is also lower than estimated a month ago, according to the overview compiled by Agreste.
Only Spain stands out clearly in a positive light. There, the harvest is 600.000 tons higher than expected in October. This means Spain will need to import less corn this year. Nevertheless, this country is by far the largest corn importer, having imported 2,5 million tons from third countries so far.
Spain's higher production is offset by lower estimates in France, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, and Romania. Consequently, the total EU harvest is 531.000 tons lower than the October estimate. Agreste now calculates the EU harvest at just under 56,6 million tons. This figure is still slightly lower than the European Commission's latest version from the end of last month.
Selection from stock
The European Commission's latest calculation already assumes that stocks will be significantly drawn upon this year to meet the demand for maize. On an annual basis, stocks will decrease by 5,7 million tons to less than 12,8 million tons at the end of this season. Agreste's lower production forecast means that slightly more stocks will be used, or slightly more will be imported.
The European Commission estimates imports this year at 18,8 million tons. This is lower than last year. The major difference compared to last year is that less corn is coming from Ukraine. Partly as a result, EU corn imports are currently stuck at 5,6 million tons. This means the import deficit compared to last year is over 1,9 million tons. This difference is considerably larger than might be expected based on the European Commission's import estimate.