The grain market is struggling to find its direction. Russian growers are sowing less wheat, but it will naturally take another year or so before this is reflected in the physical market. In Europe, wheat exports are not yet booming, but the export deficit compared to last season is being closed down somewhat. In the US, government employees can return to work after a 43-day shutdown. The fact that many figures, including exports and harvests, were not published during that period could lead to additional volatility in the coming days.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €1 at €190,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat remained unchanged at $5.36 per bushel. Corn closed 3 cents higher at $5.36 per bushel last trading session. Soybeans were the biggest gainer, up 7 cents to $11.20 per bushel.
Russia will likely harvest less wheat in 2026 than in 2025, according to SovEcon's initial forecast for the 2026 harvest. The 2026 wheat harvest is estimated at 83,8 million tons, compared to 87,8 million tons last year. The smaller harvest in Russia is due to an expected reduction in wheat acreage in the country, which is the world's largest wheat exporter. In total, Russia harvested 140 million gross tons of grain this season, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev reported via the Russian news agency Interfax. Interfax previously reported that at least 135 million tons of grain had been threshed in Russia.
Wheat was less affected by drought than maize
The French Ministry of Agriculture released an update to the harvest figures. The wheat yield has decreased by 100.000 tons compared to the October figures, to 33,3 million tons. This means the 2025 harvest will be 30% larger than the 2024 harvest, and the total wheat yield in France this season will be 4,7% above the five-year average. The winter barley yield has decreased slightly from 8,4 million tons to 8,36 million tons. The rapeseed harvest has been kept unchanged by the French ministry at 4,6 million tons. Corn has done less well than previously expected. In October, the ministry estimated a harvest of 13,5 million tons, which has now been lowered to 13,2 million tons. Due to the heat and drought, the French maize harvest is almost 10% lower than last season.
European wheat exports are still lagging behind last season, but the gap is closing. In the current season, up to and including November 9th, the EU exported 8,4 million tons of wheat, according to new figures from the European Commission. Last season, exports increased by 4% over the same period, to 8,7 million tons. Morocco is the largest wheat buyer, with 1,5 million tons.
Barley exports are more than double compared to last season. The EU has already exported 3,9 million tons of barley this season, compared to 1,8 million tons last season. Maize imports are 25% behind last season. So far, the EU has imported 5,6 million tons of maize, compared to 7,5 million tons last season.
Back to work
After 43 days, the US government shutdown has ended. All services closed due to the government shutdown are not yet fully operational. A Wasde report is due next Friday. This had already been announced, regardless of whether the shutdown would end. With more than a month of data shortages from the USDA, some analysts expect market volatility surrounding the November edition of the Wasde report to remain unchanged. The USDA has been unable to adjust US exports in the interim. This could cause a surprise, especially in soybeans, where Trump has made strong statements about demand from China.
According to some sources, China is facing a surplus of soybeans after months of record imports. This limits the outlook for US exports, despite a recent trade agreement that, according to Washington, includes Beijing's pledge to resume purchasing large volumes of soybeans from the US. Chinese buyers bought more soybeans in South America earlier this year. US soybeans were specifically avoided due to fears of the trade war with Washington.
If the USDA's Wasde report sends a positive signal for soybeans, it could have a negative impact on exports, some sources warn. Compared to Brazil, US soybeans are already more expensive, and if the Wasde report triggers a new rally on the CBoT that Brazil and Argentina don't follow, the US will price itself further out of the market, according to some analysts.