Finally, some hard figures are coming out of the US again

The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,75 at €189,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 0.5 cent lower at $5.35¾ per bushel. Corn rose 0.6 cents, closing at $4.41½ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest gainer in the last trading session, rising 11½ cents. This meant soybeans closed yesterday at $11.32 per bushel.

We had to wait a while, but yesterday the USDA released its first export figures in over a month. The USDA has established a schedule for how the data will be released. Essentially, export figures for two weeks will be published every week. The backlog in export figures will then be cleared by early next year.

Yesterday's export figures cover exports in the week ending September 25th. Net soybean exports this week totaled 870.533 tons. This is at the high end of analysts' forecast range. Of the total exports forecast by the USDA for the entire season, only 26% has been exported. In the five-year average, 46% of annual exports in this period were already exported. Corn exports are progressing more smoothly. With net exports of 1,4 million tons, 37% of the forecast exports for this season have already been exported. The five-year average is 31%. Wheat exports in the week ending September 25th totaled 315.875 tons. This is at the low end of analysts' forecast range, but wheat exports are still slightly ahead of corn exports.

Was the
Due to the shutdown, the October edition of the Wasde report was skipped, and the November version will be released a few days later than planned, this evening (Dutch time). The CBoT is taking positions in the lead-up to the report, and if anything is clear, it's that traders and speculators have high expectations for soybeans, partly due to the somewhat improved trade relations between China and the US. If it turns out that Beijing isn't buying the quantities of soybeans promised to Trump, a correction could quickly follow, several analysts warn. The Reuters poll shows that traders are expecting the tone to change. bearish is in the Wasde. Participants expect the USDA to revise closing stocks upwards for wheat, corn, and soybeans.

Market agency Expana has revised the 2025 EU wheat harvest upwards by 400.000 tons to 136,8 million tons. This means the harvest in the relatively dry year of 2025 will be 21% higher than the extremely wet previous season. In several parts of the EU, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and Scandinavia, yield records were even achieved, according to the agency. Expana expects the area under wheat and barley in the EU to remain roughly the same for the upcoming harvest.

Tunisia has reportedly secured 125.000 tons of soft wheat and 100.000 tons of durum wheat in a tender. The price for soft wheat is reportedly just under $258 per ton C&F (freight paid), while the average price for durum is $325. Sources indicate that both wheat shipments will be from Europe, with some deliveries scheduled for December and the remainder in January.

Local drought in Brazil
In Brazil, the government agency Conab released a new yield estimate. The total soybean harvest in the country is estimated at 177,6 million tons. The area under soybean cultivation has increased by 3,6% compared to last season to 49,1 million hectares. Due to drought, soybean sowing in the provinces of Goiás and Minas Gerais is lagging behind in previous years, according to Conab. On average, the percentage of soybeans already sown for the entire country is around the multi-year average. The corn harvest forecast in Brazil is 138,8 million tons, 200.000 tons more than Conab's previous forecast. The wheat forecast remains unchanged at 7,7 million tons, but wheat is a minor crop in Brazil.