It seems a bit odd that sabotage on the Polish railway, possibly involving the Kremlin, had a stronger impact on the wheat trade in Chicago than in Paris. On the other hand, this isn't the first time something has happened in Poland since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That could explain the more restrained reaction in Europe. The US released its first Crop Progress report in a month and a half. In Brazil, the volatile weather is preventing growers from sowing the last of their soybeans.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €1,75 at €190 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also rose, closing 17 cents higher at $5.44¼ per bushel. Corn saw a more modest gain of 4½ cents, bringing the December corn contract on the Chicago exchange to $4.34¾ per bushel. Soybeans rose to a six-month high in the last trading session, up 32¾ cents to $11.57¼ per bushel.
The war premium in wheat prices is rising again, particularly on the Chicago stock exchange. This is related to possible sabotage of a railway line in Poland. On the route from Warsaw to Lubin, a key route for transporting (military) equipment to Ukraine, a section of track was blown up near the town of Mika, and damage was also found further along the route, Polish Prime Minister Tusk wrote on X (formerly Twitter). The Polish authorities are talking about sabotage carried out by foreign intelligence services.
Accusing finger
Poland is not naming any names, but it is generally assumed that the Kremlin is involved. Polish authorities say they are doing everything in their power to identify the perpetrator. If Russia is indeed proven to have played a role in the railway sabotage in Poland, tensions between the two countries and NATO (Poland is a member of the alliance) could escalate further. It almost seems as if traders in Chicago are more concerned about this than their counterparts in Paris.
The Ikar price for Russian wheat also rose by $3 to $229 per tonne. Ikar has kept its export forecast for November unchanged at 5,2 to 5,4 million tonnes. Competitor SovEcon lowered its export forecast for this month slightly to 4,6 million tonnes.
A little closer to home, in France, growers are almost finished sowing winter wheat. According to the latest update from FranceAgriMer, 89% of the planned winter wheat area is in the ground, compared to 76% this week last year and 83% in the five-year average.
For the first time since September 28th, we have a Crop Progress report from the United States. This is, of course, due to the government shutdown, but that doesn't change the fact that the (normal) weekly report arrives late. Most of the fieldwork for this season is complete. In the week ending November 16th, 91% of the corn was harvested, compared to 94% in the five-year average and 98% last year. Soybean threshing is also slightly behind, with 95% harvested this season, compared to 96% in the five-year average and 98% last year. Of the planned winter wheat acreage, 92% is in the ground, compared to 95% in the five-year average. Winter wheat is likely in poorer condition than last season, likely partly due to the drought. 45% of the winter wheat acreage received a good or excellent rating, compared to 49% last year this week.
Correction on soy exports
The USDA issued a somewhat surprising correction to soybean exports yesterday. On Friday, the department announced that China had purchased 232.000 tons of soybeans from the US. Yesterday, the USDA wrote that this is incorrect. The correct amount is 132.000 tons, because China canceled 100.000 tons.
In Brazil, growers are still busy sowing soybeans. According to AgRural, 71% of the planned area has been sown. Last week, that figure was 61%. However, farmers are behind on sowing. The five-year average is 80% sown this week. Due to the changeable weather, farmers are having to work between showers to get the soybeans sown, according to AgRural.