Grain demand remains a sensitive issue in the market. Ukraine does not want to impose restrictions on wheat exports this season. The country's export forecast is optimistic. The USDA announced that China has again purchased a substantial volume of soybeans from the US. Meanwhile, Europe is struggling to compile export statistics. Brazil could well achieve a record soybean harvest this season, while further south, Argentina is experiencing a slowdown.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €190,25 per tonne. Wheat took a harder hit on the CBoT. Wheat fell 9¾ cents on the Chicago exchange to close at $5.36¾ per bushel. Corn closed 7 cents lower at $4.29¾ per bushel. Soybeans rose earlier this week to their highest level since 2024. Yesterday, there was a correction, with soybeans losing 17¼ cents to close at $11.36¼ per bushel.
Ukraine will not impose any restrictions on wheat exports this season. This is the expectation of the Ukrainian Minister of Economic Affairs. The Ukrainian wheat harvest is estimated by the country itself at 23 million tons, which is the same as the USDA's figure. The USDA estimates Ukrainian wheat exports at 15 million tons, while Ukraine itself expects exports of 17 million tons. In 2024, Ukraine harvested 22,6 million tons of wheat, of which 15,7 million tons were exported. So far this season, Ukraine has exported 6,8 million tons of wheat, compared to 8,6 million tons in the same period last season. In this light, the Ukrainian export forecast may be somewhat optimistic.
Mess
European wheat exports have made significant progress. Up to and including November 16, 9,05 million tons of wheat were exported, compared to 9,09 million tons last season. Regarding the data, the European Commission notes that France's figures have been incomplete since the beginning of 2024, those of Bulgaria and Ireland since the start of the 2023/24 season, and that Polish import and export data for the last two months are missing. The European Commission is also investigating Romania's unusually high wheat exports. Several analysts have criticized the European Commission for the long-standing problems with data collection.
Behind the scenes, the US president appears to be making a new attempt to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Several media outlets, citing anonymous sources, are reporting that high-ranking officials within the Trump administration have visited Ukraine to discuss an end to the war. The Kremlin has reportedly signaled its openness to a deal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, denies any new developments.
In another of Trump's major headaches, the trade war with China, the USDA released some positive news. China has purchased 330.000 tons of soybeans from the US for delivery this season. Official channels have now confirmed the export of 1,1 million tons of soybeans to China. There's still a long way to go before China reaches the 12 million tons that Trump has estimated Beijing must import in the 2025/26 season.
Extremes
In South America, the contrast between Brazil and Argentina regarding the development of the season is stark. In Brazil, it's on the dry side, causing soybean sowing to lag somewhat. However, it's not extremely dry in the country. Abiove, the Brazilian trade association for the vegetable oil sector, is expecting a record soybean harvest. The 2026 harvest is estimated at 177,7 million tons, compared to 172,1 million tons last year. Abiove forecasts 111 million tons of this amount for export. For 2025, Abiove anticipates exports of 109 million tons.
Argentina is not experiencing a drought, but there are localized flooding issues. In some regions, more than double the amount of rain has already fallen this year compared to the multi-year average. Around this time, everyone should be out in the fields with their seed drills, but now it's too wet or even waterlogged, growers report in local media. Lack of maintenance and insufficient investment in drainage and water management infrastructure are exacerbating the problems caused by the excessive rain. According to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, 12,9% of the planned soybean acreage has been sown, compared to 16,2% in the five-year average.