The London-based International Grain Council (IGC) has surpassed the US WASDE report with its 2025/26 wheat harvest estimate. The IGC has raised its global wheat harvest estimate to 830 million tons. Last week, the WASDE report reported a harvest estimate of 828,89 million tons.
Leading grain forecasting agencies have been continuously revising their expectations for this season upwards in recent months. The US Department of Agriculture's Wasde report saw a significant increase last week, with a change of 12,69 million tons, but this is mainly due to the agency's failure to report last month due to the US government shutdown, which kept government agencies closed.
Not only do Wasde and IGC agree significantly on production, but their consumption estimates also barely differ. The US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of global wheat consumption to 818,9 million tons. IGC took a small step back from last month to 819 million tons.
The consumption estimates are not good news for wheat growers. Over the past two seasons, more wheat was consumed than produced, causing stocks to decline. This season, production has dominated, and wheat stocks are rising again. IGC estimates that stocks will have increased by 11 million tons by the end of June next year, totaling 275 million tons. The Wasde report projects an increase of 10 million tons to 271,43 million tons.