We shouldn't expect a turnaround in the wheat market any time soon. That was, at least, the message from the Russian Minister of Agriculture to growers at Yugagro. The current price is a good one, according to the minister. China's market for soybeans remains strong. An import record was even broken for October, according to customs figures. A point of concern for US President Trump will be that, for the second month in a row, China hasn't imported any soybeans from the US.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €1 at €189,25. On the CBoT, wheat lost 9¾ cents to close at $5.27 per bushel. Corn was also in the red, but its loss was limited to 3¼ cents at $4.26½ per bushel. Soybeans closed 13¾ cents lower at $11.22½ per bushel.
The chance that the wheat price will rise again towards $300 or $400 per ton, as it did in 2022, is slim, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said during a plenary session of Yugagro, an agricultural exhibition in Krasnodar, Russia. The export price for Russian wheat is stable at $230 (approximately €200) per ton, according to the minister. "Price spikes can, of course, occur, but only if a link in the chain breaks. That is, if good relations deteriorate during unfavorable global conditions, then such price spikes will occur. If everything is stable, then $230 per ton is a good price."
Large stock
Lut cited the large global grain reserves as one reason why prices will not rise. The total grain harvest is estimated at 3 billion tons, of which more than 800 million tons are wheat. "If we look at the stocks, there is always a surplus of wheat because the major exporting countries always have very large stocks," Lut explained. According to the minister, the export duties imposed by the Kremlin on wheat, among other things, which some Russian grain exporters are reportedly trying to get rid of, have had no effect from a Russian economic perspective.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world wheat production by 3 million tons to 830 million tons. Last season's harvest was significantly smaller at 799 million tons. The corn harvest estimate was also revised upward from last month's estimate by 1 million tons to 1.298 million tons. Last season, 1.238 million tons of corn were threshed. The IGC's figures for soybeans are more bullish. This season's harvest estimate has been lowered by 2 million tons to 426 million tons. Last season, 429 million tons of soybeans were harvested globally.
Demand for soy
China imported a record amount of soybeans in October, according to new Chinese customs figures. Last month, China imported 9,48 million tons of soybeans, the largest portion of which, 7,12 million tons, came from Brazil. For the second consecutive month, no soybeans were imported from the US. In total, China has imported 70,81 million tons of soybeans from Brazil this calendar year, a 4,5% increase compared to the same period a year earlier. Imports from Argentina so far this year are up 23,9% at 4,46 million tons. Although China has not imported any soybeans from the US in recent months, exports for the calendar year totaled 16,82 million tons. This is 11,5% higher than in the first 10 months of 2024.
There's also demand for wheat from China. The USDA announced yesterday that 132.000 tons of wheat had been sold to China. China isn't the only country in the wheat market. Saudi Arabia opened a tender yesterday for 300.000 tons of baking wheat.