Globally, wheat prices are under significant pressure. Yet, in the Netherlands, we're seeing rising prices. Prices here have been quietly rising since their lows in September and early October.
The Groningen Grain Exchange raised its wheat price this week by €1 to €187 per tonne. This brings the price back to the same level as at the end of August. The difference from the low two months ago is now almost €10 per tonne.
These aren't earth-shattering differences, but still. At 10 tons per hectare and a price difference of €10 per ton, that still amounts to €100 per hectare. You either have it or you don't. What's remarkable is that this week's price increase (€1 per ton) in Groningen is happening despite increasing supply from abroad. We're also seeing a similar price movement on the wholesale market in Hamburg.
We're seeing a similar trend with barley. In Groningen, the price rose this week to €186 per tonne. This is the highest price level of the 2025-2026 season. Sales began in July with prices around €180 per tonne, before falling slightly to €178 per tonne in September. As with wheat, a cautious upward trend began in October.
Futures markets back to square one
Futures markets are now back to square one when it comes to wheat prices. After a brief rally in late October and early November, the futures market in Paris has fallen back below €190 per tonne. Higher global production figures have fueled the pessimists, and that clearly sets the tone for now.
We also see this reflected in the price development of the currently most traded wheat contract in Paris, the March 2026 contract. The price difference between December and March is disappearing like snow in the sun. On Tuesday, the March contract closed just above €190 per tonne, putting it almost in the same boat as the December contract.
Wheat prices finally showed a slight increase in Chicago on Tuesday. March contracts are the most traded here, and their price rose by $0,04½ to $5,39¼ per bushel. This still leaves the price €0,20 per bushel lower than a week ago. This translates to a price drop of €5 per tonne in the past week to €172 per tonne.