Analysis Grains & Commodities
Australian growers have never harvested so much barley before
Winter grains have performed well in Australia. Abares estimates the total winter crop harvest will be 35% above the ten-year average and anticipates the third-best wheat harvest ever in the country. In Ukraine, growers have sown more winter wheat than last autumn, according to preliminary figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Reports of large harvests are impacting prices. And here, according to some traders, the physical market differs in some respects from the futures market.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €186,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also declined slightly, down 0.50 cents to $5.30¼ per bushel. Corn closed down 2¾ cents at $4.32¾ per bushel. The biggest decline on the Chicago exchange was soybeans, down 9¾ cents to $11.28 per bushel.
Australia is on track for the second-largest winter crop harvest in the world, according to Abares (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, part of the Australian Department of Agriculture) in its December Crop Report. The total winter crop harvest is estimated at 66,3 million tons, 35% above the ten-year average.
More than half of the harvest is wheat, at 35,6 million tons. The wheat harvest estimate has been increased by 1,8 million tons compared to the previous estimate, making it the third-largest harvest ever. The barley estimate has been raised by 18% to a record harvest of 15,7 million tons.
The expected rapeseed harvest has also increased significantly by 13% to 7,2 million tons. In Western Australia (the largest growing region), the average wheat yield is 3 tons per hectare. Farmers in this province harvest an average of 3,8 tons per hectare of barley and 2 tons of rapeseed.
The winter crop harvest is progressing steadily, and the yield of these crops can be determined fairly accurately, writes Abares. However, the statistics service is still cautious about the yields of crops sown in spring. Sowing conditions were good in Australia during the spring, but now that summer has arrived there, rain is still needed to maximize the potential yield. Late-sown crops, in particular, still have a long way to go.
More wheat sown
Ukraine released its first forecast for the 2026 wheat harvest yesterday. According to State Secretary Taras Vysotskiy, the wheat harvest could reach 24 to 25 million tons next summer. Last summer, 23 million tons of wheat were harvested in Ukraine.
The larger harvest is linked to an expansion of the wheat acreage. This autumn, 4,7 million hectares of winter wheat were sown, compared to 4,4 million hectares last season. A total of 6,43 million hectares of winter crops have been sown, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. This represents 98% of the planned area.
Ukraine's grain exports from the recent harvest are not performing well. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, 12,14 million tons of grains and legumes were exported this season. This means exports are down 32% compared to the same period last season. In November, 2,76 million tons were exported, 23% less than the same month a year earlier.
Growers offer little
Higher yield estimates, such as those currently being seen in Australia and Ukraine, are less favorable for prices. Some traders in the physical market are noticing this. Several arable farmers are in no hurry to sell at current prices.
The chance of prices rising further later in the season is considered greater than a further drop. Some sources report that this is creating a situation where, in a market where there should be ample grain, some traders are struggling to actually buy grain.