Risk premium pushes wheat prices up again

The most traded wheat contract on the Paris futures market—the one for March 2026—has risen again to just above €190 per tonne after Putin's threat. So, these aren't earth-shattering changes in the market yet, more like ripples.

A slight price increase is also noticeable in Chicago. December saw the largest increase, but there is still very little trading in this contract. Compared to a week ago, December is now trading 10,5 cents higher at $5,37¾ per bushel. This translates to a price of €170 per ton.

The March contract shows a smaller gain to $5,41 per bushel. Because the dollar has depreciated slightly further, the wheat price for this contract is even lower than last week, from €172 to €171 per tonne.

Unlike the futures markets, local prices are actually declining slightly. The Grain Exchange in Groningen is dropping wheat prices this week by €1 to €186 per tonne. This ends the upward trend of recent weeks. According to the Groningen Quotation Committee, the market is still somewhat calmer than in previous weeks, as the grain processing industry appears to be sufficiently supplied to see out the year.

EU exports still need to gain momentum
EU soft wheat exports are approaching the 10 million tonne mark, a similar pace to last year. This means there's still considerable room for improvement in the remainder of the year. The wheat harvest in the 27 Member States was significantly larger this year than a year ago.

According to the European Commission's latest estimate, 134,2 million tons of common wheat were harvested this year. EU production is therefore 23,2 million tons (21%) higher than last year. This means there is also a significantly larger quantity available for export. For now, the European Commission is targeting exports of 31 million tons of common wheat this year. This is a similar amount to two years ago. Last season, exports remained at 21,5 million tons due to lower availability.