Analysis Grains & Commodities
Canadian wheat harvest breaks records
As a farmer, no matter how hard you try, weather ultimately remains a crucial factor in determining crop yields. This is evident once again in the latest harvest figures from Canada. Sufficient, timely rainfall has boosted wheat and canola yields to record highs, according to Stats Canada. Ukraine could export 5% more grains and oilseeds this season, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association. In the US, expectations for soybean exports are high. According to Bessent, 12 million tons of soybeans will be shipped to China in the coming period, but there are some doubts from the trade sector.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €192,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat showed a modest gain of 3 cents to close at $5.41 per bushel. Corn was the biggest gainer in Chicago last trading session, closing 6 cents higher at $4.37 per bushel. Soybeans were also up, closing 3 cents higher at $11.19 per bushel.
Canadian farmers harvested a record amount of wheat last summer, according to the final harvest figures published yesterday by Stats Canada. The total wheat harvest totaled 40 million tons, an 11,2% increase compared to last year and surpassing the previous record harvest from 2013. Spring wheat accounts for the majority of Canada's wheat, at 29,3 million tons. The spring wheat area, at 18,3 million acres, was 2,1% smaller in 2025 than in 2024. The yield per acre was 12,9% higher than a year earlier. Stats Canada estimates an average yield for spring wheat of 58,8 bushels per acre (approximately 4 tons per hectare).
Canola also performed well in Canada. The total harvest is 13,3% larger than last year at 21,8 million tons, breaking the 2017 record. The average canola yield is 44,7 bushels per acre (approximately 3 tons per hectare). Barley acreage shrank by 4,9% compared to last year to 5,6 million acres. However, the total barley harvest was 19,4% larger at 9,7 million tons. The yield per acre was a quarter higher than last season at 79,4 bushels per acre (approximately 5,4 tons per hectare).
Sufficient moisture
The weather played a significant role in the strong yields, according to Stats Canada. Sufficient rainfall at the right times in the Prairie provinces has pushed wheat, barley, and canola yields toward record levels.
Corn and soybeans performed less well in Canada this season. Compared to last season, 0,7% more corn was sown in Canada, to 3,6 million acres, but the harvest was 3,1% lower at 14,9 million tons. Soybean acreage expanded by 1,4% to 5,7 million acres. The total harvest is 10,2% lower than last year at 6,8 million tons. In the eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec, warm and dry weather during the growing season likely cost yields, according to Stats Canada.
Fear of Russian attacks
The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates that grain and oilseed exports could increase by 5%. Total exports this season would reach 49 million tons, compared to 46,7 million tons last season, according to the association. However, the Ukrainian Grain Association has one major caveat to this forecast. The amount of grain exported depends largely on the extent of damage caused by Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy supply, ports, and railways.
Russian agricultural organizations sold 15,8% less grain in the first ten months of the calendar year compared to the same period last year. This was announced this week by the Russian statistical service Rosstat. A total of 54,6 million tons of grain were traded in ten months this year. Russian exports of sunflower, rapeseed, and soybean meal could reach a record 4,4 million tons this season, according to the Russian market agency Ikar. Last season, 3,9 million tons of meal were exported. Due to a good rapeseed and soybean harvest and strong domestic demand for vegetable oil, Russia has a large amount of meal to export. Whether a record is actually broken depends partly on the demand for soybean meal, according to Ikar. Demand for soybean meal is particularly low in the Far East.
China remains elusive for the US
The Far East, and specifically China, is and remains a difficult market for the United States. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent maintains that China will buy 12 million tons of soybeans from the US by February 2026. The total since October (when the deal between Trump and Xi was struck) has remained at 2,25 million tons, according to official USDA figures. Meanwhile, Brazil exported 4,2 million tons of soybeans in November, compared to 2,6 million tons in November 2024. Not all of these exports are going to China. Brazilian soybeans are more affordable for Chinese buyers than American ones, and Brazil's strong export figures have led several analysts to question the exact nature of China's commitments.