The relationship between China and the US was once again a hot topic at the CBoT meeting yesterday. China is on track to import a record amount of soy, but the US is struggling to get a foot in the door. Meanwhile, there are signs that China may be clearing silos for new purchases.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2,75 at €189,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat also fell 1.5 cents to $5.36 per bushel. Corn closed 0.5 cents lower at $4.36¼ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest loser in the trading session, down 11.5 cents to $10.93¾ per bushel.
The USDA announced yesterday that 132.000 tons of American soybeans had been sold to China. However, that news made little impression. More attention was focused on China's customs figures. Last November, China imported 8,11 million tons of soybeans. That's 13,4% more than November of the previous year, but 14,5% less than in October. According to customs figures, China has now imported 103,8 million tons of soybeans in the first eleven months of this year. That's 6,9% more than the same period a year earlier. This puts China on track for a record import volume this calendar year.
Although China imported a significant volume of soybeans in November, some analysts believe imports are slightly lower than expected. A deal was reached between China and the US at the end of October, and some analysts expect this to further boost Chinese soybean imports. With approximately 2,7 million tons (according to USDA figures), China also purchased a significant amount of American soybeans.
Making room
Chinese state-owned purchasing and storage company Sinograin announced Monday that it will auction 512.500 tons of soybeans this coming Thursday (December 11). This is the first auction in three months and the first sale of soybeans since the agreement with the US. The auction will reportedly cover soybeans harvested in 2022 and 2023. According to some sources, this auction could be the start of more auctions. By focusing on sales now, Sinograin is making way for additional soybean purchases from the US, some sources expect.
In Brazil, farmers are almost finished sowing soybeans. According to AgRural, 94% of the planned soybean acreage had been sown as of December 4. Last year, the total was 95% sown this week. The rain that fell in parts of Brazil last week has boosted the crop, especially in the largest soybean province, Mato Grosso, according to AgRural. Nevertheless, the market office is keeping the soybean yield forecast unchanged at 178,5 million tons. AgRural also released its first corn yield forecast in Brazil. The total harvest is estimated at 135,3 million tons, compared to 141,1 million tons last season. The corn, which will be grown as the first crop, is almost sown, according to the market office. In Rio Grande do Sul, there are concerns about the hot and dry weather. "This is already costing corn growers there yields," AgRural writes.
Bigger harvest in Ukraine
The Ukrainian wheat harvest is expected to be 4% larger this summer than last year, according to market bureau Argus after its virtual crop tour. The wheat acreage will increase by 100.000 hectares to 5,2 million hectares, according to Argus, and an average yield of 4,6 tons per hectare is expected, compared to 4,55 tons per hectare in 2025. Conditions in the various regions of Ukraine vary considerably, from dry to winter wheat sown late due to persistent rain. Overall, winter wheat in Ukraine is doing better this year than last year, thanks to sufficient soil moisture in the main growing regions, according to Argus.
Egypt, one of the largest wheat importers, plans to expand its wheat acreage next season. The target is to reach 3,5 million feddan (approximately 1,5 million hectares) of wheat by 2026, Egyptian Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk told Bloomberg. In 2025, Egypt cultivated 3,2 million feddan (approximately 1,3 million hectares) of wheat.