It's still very early in the growing season, of course, but Coceral released an estimate for the European grain harvest in 2026. Although wheat is doing well, the association doesn't expect a repeat of the very good yields seen last season. In India, grain growers also have little to complain about with the start of the new season. This translates into a significant expansion of the wheat acreage.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,25 at €190 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat fell 5 cents to $5.31¼ per bushel. Corn closed down 6 cents at $4.34¾ per bushel. Unlike grains, soybeans moved higher. The January contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange closed up 4 cents at $10.91¼ per bushel.
The European Grain Traders' Association, Coceral, has published its first harvest forecast for the 2026 harvest. The organization expects 143,9 million tons of wheat to be harvested in the EU this summer. By comparison, 147,5 million tons of wheat were threshed in 2025. Last season, wheat yields in the EU were exceptional, according to Coceral. The association expects lower yields per hectare for the coming season. Nevertheless, the starting position for winter wheat is not bad. "The rain in recent months has created favorable soil moisture, allowing crops in many parts of the EU to develop well in the run-up to winter," Coceral writes.
Drought
The barley yield is estimated at 58,2 million tons in the upcoming harvest, compared to 63,2 million tons in 2025. The expected corn yield next year is estimated at 58,9 million tons, compared to 57,1 million tons in the previous harvest. Coceral expects yields to recover somewhat after the very dry last growing season. Growers, primarily in France and the Balkan countries, are losing interest in corn after yields have been more disappointing than positive in recent years. Instead of corn, they are sowing more sunflowers and soybeans, according to Coceral. The rapeseed harvest for 2026 is estimated by Coceral at 21,8 million tons. This is the same as last summer's harvest.
Due to strong harvests, wheat is the weakest link in the grain market, according to several analysts. Last Tuesday, the USDA increased its closing wheat stocks by 3,4 million tons to 274,9 million tons in its Wasde report. While an increase was expected, the adjustment was larger than several market participants anticipated. The effect of this is reflected in the CBoT. The March wheat contract, the most heavily traded, fell yesterday to its lowest level in a month and a half.
What's especially unhelpful for US exporters is Argentina's reduction of its export tariff on wheat, from 9,5% to 7,5%. Wheat from Argentina was already relatively cheap on the global market, and it would be a disaster for that to change anytime soon. Due to quality issues, feed wheat from Argentina is at its lowest price in eight years, according to several sources.
Major expansion of wheat area in India
Farmers in India have sown significantly more winter crops such as winter wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas this autumn, Reuters reports, citing figures from the Indian Ministry of Agriculture. A total of 47,9 million hectares of winter crops have been sown, a 6,1% increase compared to last year. More than half of this is wheat, at 24,1 million hectares. This means the wheat area is 10,8% larger than last season. The area cultivated with rapeseed is 4,5% larger than last season, at 7,8 million hectares.
The reason for the expansion of the acreage is the rain that fell last October. In major growing regions in northwest India, up to 161% more rain fell than average in October. Due to the abundant moisture in the soil, fields are now being cultivated that in other years would often lie fallow due to insufficient water. A large acreage does not automatically guarantee a bumper harvest. The year from roughly mid-January to mid-March determines yields.