Monday was already a bad day for wheat prices, and Tuesday's blow was even greater. This is true, at least, for wheat futures trading; locally, sellers and buyers are keeping quiet.
It remains a curious situation, with the international wheat market constantly taking a beating, while local markets remain relatively stable. At the CBoT, the price level has fallen this week to the equivalent of below €160 per tonne, and in Paris, a price level of €190 per tonne is also increasingly out of reach.
Meanwhile, local trade is holding up quite well. The Groningen grain exchange closed the calendar year at €186 per tonne. This puts the price level €8 higher than at the end of September and the beginning of October. However, it is considerably lower than the €230 per tonne that was listed at the end of 2024.
So it's not that local markets aren't affected by the large global wheat supply this year. But in recent weeks, regional markets have shown that the market in the Netherlands is at least remaining stable. Amidst all the international commotion, this is certainly very interesting to follow.
The Zuid stock exchange lost a euro at the bottom this week, but in the same stroke of the pen, a euro was added at the top. The net result is therefore a stable average price. The price this week stands at €173 to €180 per tonne.
On the other side of the country – the Graanbeurs (Grain Exchange) in Groningen – the northerners are certainly no less steadfast. For the third week in a row, the Quotations Committee reports a price of €186 per tonne. In an explanation, the Committee states that due to the low prices, sellers are showing little to no willingness to part with their product. However, questions are being raised about whether prices will improve in the short term.
Now, let's take a look at the futures markets. Soft wheat fell 11,25 US cents to $5,09½ per bushel on the CBoT futures market on Tuesday. Last week, trading in March contracts closed at $5,29¼ per bushel. All in all, this week's price has fallen by about 20 US cents per bushel, or almost 4%. In a market that normally sees small daily movements, this is a significant drop.
By European standards, the price drop on the CBoT represents a reduction in the price level of March contracts to €159 per tonne. This price drop was accompanied by a sharp increase in the number of contracts traded. Fearing further price drops, contracts are being sold off. The drop in wheat prices is also dragging down the price of corn, as wheat and corn compete for animal feed.
Price pressure has long been driven by a large wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. Now that large harvests are also being supplied from the Southern Hemisphere, the price pressure is increasing even further. The European wheat trade is also being hampered by the increasingly weak dollar. Exports are already suffering from cheaper supply, particularly from the Black Sea region, and the weaker dollar is making things even worse.
France, in particular, is struggling with exports. As a result, the country is trying to sell more wheat on the EU market, putting additional price pressure on the internal market. This development is further exacerbated by the continued expansion of the winter wheat acreage in France.
Statistics agency Agreste predicts an increase in winter wheat cultivation of 100.000 hectares for the 2026 harvest. It also notes that crop conditions are currently better than a year ago. This puts French wheat in a good position for an even larger harvest than in 2025. This forecast is further depressing the market.