Today marks the fifth day of rising wheat futures prices. We haven't seen that in a long time. However, it would require heavy Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian ports to achieve this.
Incidentally, these are only small increments that are pushing up wheat prices. Even for a grain market, these aren't earth-shattering increases. In a week, the wheat price on the Paris futures market has risen by €4 to €189 per tonne. That's barely enough to buy two loaves of bread.
This indicates that the wheat trade is difficult to redirect. Under the influence of large global stockpiles, the downward path is easier to navigate than the upward path resulting from heavy bombing.
On the CBoT futures market in Chicago, the differences are certainly no greater than in Paris at the moment. The March wheat price on CBoT is climbing towards $5,2 per bushel. The exchange closed at $5,17 per bushel on Tuesday, placing the price 11 cents above last Wednesday's low.
Converted to $5,27 per tonne, Tuesday's closing price equates to a price of €161 per tonne. That's €3 higher than the €158 per tonne that bottomed out mid-last week. The May contract shows a similar pattern. Its price closed Tuesday at $5.27 per tonne, which converts to €164 per tonne.
Meanwhile, Russia is ramping up its wheat exports. Russian market consultancy SovEcon estimates that Russia will export 3,9 million tons of wheat this month. That's 0,5 million tons more than last year. Moreover, it's not much lower than the record for December, which stood at 4,1 million tons in 2022. A contributing factor is that export margins have returned to positive levels due to lower local prices. Iran and Turkey, in particular, are buying larger volumes from Russia this season.
Local markets in the Netherlands remain stoically stable during this period. The Groningen stock exchange held steady at €186 per tonne in December and won't trade again until January. The Zuid stock exchange (Goes) is trading this week. The price on this exchange drops by €1 at the lower end, reaching between €172 and €180 per tonne. Demand is low during this period, but supply is also very small.