Total grain production in the European Union remains stable. A slight increase in wheat and barley is coming at the expense of grain maize. The latter crop is particularly vulnerable, especially in drought-prone Southern Europe. Therefore, conditions primarily determine whether smaller or larger quantities of the various grain varieties will reach the market.
European grain areas have shown a remarkably stable picture in recent years. In the EU-27, there has been no structural expansion or contraction of the total grain area. The dynamics are primarily due to shifts between wheat, barley, and maize. For the 2026 harvest year, the European Grain Traders' Association (Coceral) again expects only limited changes in the total area, with wheat as the clear anchor crop.
Wheat as a backbone
Wheat forms the backbone of the cropping plan in the 27 member states of the European Union. According to the latest Coceral forecast, the area of common wheat in the EU will increase slightly, from 21,6 million hectares in 2025 to 21,7 million hectares in 2026. This means wheat remains by far the largest crop within the European cereal complex.
This development underscores that European growers continue to view wheat as a relatively secure market. It's a fixed component of crop rotation and a crop with manageable risks, compared to maize in dry years. Within the EU-27, France, Germany, and Poland are the main drivers of this overall movement. Small changes in area in these countries have a direct impact on the EU total.
Slight expansion
For now, Coceral anticipates a slight expansion of soft wheat in France and a minimal decline in Germany. In Poland, the acreage is on track to stabilize. The largest increase in 2026 is expected in Romania, with an increase of 120.000 hectares to 2,4 million hectares.
For durum wheat, Coceral predicts a slight decrease in the area under cultivation in 2026: from 2,44 million hectares to 2,41 million hectares. This fits with the picture of a market that has been stimulated by high prices in recent years, but is now normalizing somewhat. Southern European countries remain dominant, but expansion appears limited for the time being.
More barley
The first forecast projects that barley acreage in the EU-27 will increase by 2%, from 10,1 million hectares in 2025 to 10,3 million hectares in 2026. Barley will therefore remain an important, yet flexible, rotational crop. Its attractiveness depends heavily on feed prices and malt premiums, yield security, and competition with wheat during the autumn sowing of winter grains. The largest shift in this crop is expected in Denmark, with an increase from 550.000 to 600.000 hectares.
The area of grain maize remains under pressure. Coceral projects a further decline by 2026, bringing cultivation to below 8 million hectares. Particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, the risk of drought, irrigation availability, and higher cultivation costs are increasingly playing a role in acreage decisions.
less corn
Grain traders predict the largest declines in France and Romania. In France, they expect a reduction of 150.000 hectares to 1,45 million hectares, and in Romania, a reduction of 50.000 hectares to 1,75 million hectares. A more normal harvest should prevent production from being as low as last year.