China has been an active buyer of US soybeans in recent months. This is a welcome change for American farmers, but there are some criticisms that the effect on soybean prices is limited. The Argentine wheat harvest is expected to be slightly larger than previously forecast, according to the Buenos Aires stock exchange.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed unchanged at €189,75 per tonne last trading session. On the CBoT, wheat declined 3¾ cents to $5.07 per bushel. Corn moved more sideways, closing ¼ cent lower at $4.40¼ per bushel. Soybeans fell significantly on the last trading day of 2025, falling 14¾ cents to $10.47½ per bushel.
An ample supply of grain on the global market is putting pressure on prices. This has been going on for some time and doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon, assuming the weather continues to cooperate for the new season. The Buenos Aires grain exchange raised its wheat harvest estimate in Argentina by 700.000 tons to 27,8 million tons. This significantly surpasses the record harvest of 22,4 million tons set four years ago. According to the exchange, 7% of Argentina's wheat remains to be harvested.
Argentine growers have made significant progress in sowing corn and soybeans. According to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, 82% of the planned soybean acreage has been sown, and 84% of the corn. The exchange is keeping the expected cultivated area for these crops unchanged from the previous estimate at 17,6 million hectares of soybeans and 6,7 million hectares of corn.
China is pulling on soy
China has purchased 8 million tons of soybeans from the US in recent months, according to Bloomberg news agency, citing well-informed sources who wished to remain anonymous. Following talks between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the end of October, the White House announced that China had pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of American soybeans by the end of this year. US officials cited a February deadline. Beijing has not confirmed the pledge, but the Chinese government has lowered import duties on soybeans and lifted import bans on three US exporters.
At the Chicago stock exchange, the news that China has fulfilled two-thirds of the volumes promised by Trump was met with little enthusiasm. The 12 million tons were never confirmed by China, and with the Brazilian harvest about to begin, it remains to be seen whether China will continue buying from the US in January and February, several traders told Bloomberg. For US soybean growers, it's a welcome surprise that significant volumes of soy are going to China. The fact that prices haven't been able to rise, however, is causing frustration.
In December, Trump announced a $12 billion support package for American farmers, partly to compensate for the effects of the trade war. Growers are still awaiting details about exactly what payments they will receive, as promised in February, and what the additional terms are.