European and US futures markets started the first full trading week of 2026 at different rates. In Europe, things were somewhat hesitant, partly due to the large inventories hanging over the market. In the US, grains were in the green. Unrest in Latin America and interest from China supported the Chicago stock exchange.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €1 at €188,25 per tonne. The mood on the Chicago exchange was much more positive. Wheat closed 6 cents higher at $5.12½ per bushel. Corn rose 7 cents to $4.44½ per bushel. The biggest gainer during the last trading session was soybeans, up 17¾ cents to $10.47¼ per bushel.
After the Christmas holiday dip, grain prices in Chicago rose, which feels a bit like the first real trading day of 2026. According to some analysts, the development in the US futures market cannot be completely separated from US actions in Venezuela. President Maduro was kidnapped on Saturday and arraigned in New York yesterday. Trump issued warnings, not only to Venezuela but also to other Latin American countries and Greenland.
For investors, this was a signal to invest in safe havens. Gold and silver saw significant gains yesterday, but other commodities like oil and grains also benefited somewhat from the unrest caused by Trump's geopolitical policies, according to some analysts, although the effect outside of precious metals remains limited. Other experts point out that grain prices on the Chicago stock exchange had fallen a bit too much. Prices were at a level where speculators were once again attracted to buy grains.
Large stock
Fundamentally, not much has changed in the grain market. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and Argentina are wrapping up their wheat harvests. Growers in both countries have no complaints about yields; they are generally good. This means there remains ample wheat stock on the market.
Chinese interest in US soybeans has given soybeans extra momentum at the CBoT. According to some sources, China is on track to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by spring. The main competitor for US soybeans is Brazil. Rain fell in its main growing areas last weekend. This is beneficial for the soybeans that are now maturing there. The Brazilian soybean harvest appears to be very good, and it will soon become clear whether the forecasts match the actual yields.
Some analysts are concerned about soybeans in Argentina. In southern Argentina, where growers have almost finished sowing, it's dry. While central Brazil did receive rain, southern Argentina remained dry.