The US Department of Agriculture, the USDA, released its Wasde report last night (Dutch time). The corn figures sent a minor shockwave. The March contract fell by more than 5%, sending corn prices plummeting to their lowest level since October on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2,50 at €189,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed down 6 cents at $5.11¼ per bushel. The biggest loser during the last trading session on the Chicago exchange was corn, which fell 24¼ cents to $4.21½ per bushel. Soybeans were also in the red, closing down 15½ cents at $10.33 per bushel.
The US corn harvest is larger compared to the previous edition of the Wasde report. Last fall, 17,0 billion bushels (approximately 431 million tons) of corn was harvested, according to the USDA, a record harvest. That's 269 million bushels (approximately 6,8 million tons) more than the December edition of the Wasde report anticipated. The previous record harvest was harvested in 2023. The 2025 harvest will exceed that by 1,7 billion bushels (approximately 43 million tons). The average yield has increased by 0,5 bushel to 186,5 bushels per acre (approximately 11,7 tons per hectare). The harvested area has also been revised upward by 1,3 million acres.
price drop
The USDA's upward revision of its corn harvest figures comes as a surprise to analysts and traders. A Reuters poll last week showed that analysts expected the USDA to revise both yield and harvested area downward in the January edition of the Wasde report. The effect on the market was therefore unmistakable. As mentioned, corn fell by more than 5%, to its lowest price since October.
The USDA has also significantly increased the global ending stock of corn. The ending stock for the 2025/26 season is now estimated at 290,9 million tons, 11,8 million tons more than in the previous report. The increase is primarily due to new figures from China on the corn harvest there, the USDA writes. A record amount of corn was also harvested in China, at 301,2 million tons, the USDA reports, based on new figures from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.
Greater wheat stock
For wheat it was also Wasde bearish The total amount of wheat (beginning stock plus production) available worldwide this season has increased by 4,3 million tons to 1.102,2 million tons. This adjustment is primarily due to larger harvests in Argentina and Russia. The USDA has increased Argentina's wheat harvest by 3,5 million tons to a record 27,5 million tons. The total harvest amounts to 842,2 million tons of wheat.
Global wheat consumption increased by 0,9 million tons to 823,9 million tons. This results in a 3,4 million tons increase in the final wheat stock to 278,3 million tons. After two seasons of depletion of wheat stocks, production in 2025/26 will exceed consumption. For comparison, in 2024/25, 801 million tons of wheat were harvested, while consumption was 811 million tons.
Soy in China is disappointing
Soybeans and other oilseeds followed more or less the same trend as grains in the Wasde report. Global oilseed production increased by 2,9 million tons to 693,2 million tons. Global soybean production increased by 3,1 million tons compared to the December report, to 425,7 million tons. Harvests in Brazil and the US were better than previously estimated, but this was offset by a lower soybean harvest in China. Ending oilseed stocks increased by 1,5 million tons to 145,1 million tons.