Wheat remains the linchpin in the average arable farmer's crop rotation, but financially, this stability has yielded little in recent seasons. The market is currently more focused on margin manipulation than on achieving structural returns. In this context, wheat performed only marginally better than other arable crops, such as rapeseed, which is traditionally considered riskier, but actually benefited last season from tighter supply and clear demand surges.
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the average yield per hectare in 2025 was 10,2 tons for wheat and 4,5 tons for rapeseed. Combined with the average matif prices of €200 per ton for wheat and €485 per ton for rapeseed, rapeseed yields slightly more per hectare than wheat. This difference is even greater when considering that rapeseed cultivation costs are often lower than those of wheat.
Canada and China trade agreements boost rapeseed prices
Earlier this week, it was announced that the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China in mid-January, with the discussion of reciprocal import tariffs on the agenda. Market speculation is that Canada would postpone the additional import tariffs on Chinese electric cars by a year. In return, China could lift the 100% import tariffs on Canadian canola oil and rapeseed meal. This news boosted rapeseed and canola prices, which rose to around $620 per tonne, their highest level in more than a month. Moreover, it is expected that in that case, no more genetically modified (GMO) seeds will likely be imported into the European Union.
In addition to political developments, the market was supported by strong demand and persistent supply risks, which outweighed signals of sufficient global oilseed supplies. In Europe, new biofuel and policy measures are boosting short-term demand for vegetable oil. Stricter biofuel regulations are expected to further increase rapeseed oil consumption.
The latest USDA WASDE report raised the global oilseed production estimate, while also expecting a larger portion of these seeds to be processed into oil and byproducts. This supports demand for vegetable oil. At the same time, the estimate for rapeseed production in Russia was revised downward. Furthermore, winter conditions in the Black Sea region are putting additional pressure on near-term availability, despite larger harvests in the Southern Hemisphere.
Are we now going to grow more rapeseed?
Although rapeseed yields better than wheat, it's unlikely this will lead to major shifts in crop rotation. In the Netherlands, rapeseed is a minor arable crop. Its yield is highest with a rotation of at least one in four. Moreover, the prolonged presence of rapeseed in the soil can cause problems for subsequent crops such as potatoes and onions, making it difficult to incorporate into every crop rotation.