The supply of wheat from the Black Sea region continues to put pressure on the European wheat market. Shipping in the region is not without risk after the recent drone attacks, according to marine insurers. Insurance premiums have almost doubled in a short period. In the US, the market showed a cautious recovery after the impact of the Wasde report earlier this week.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €1,50 at €188,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, grains showed a modest gain. Wheat closed 2 cents higher at $5.12½ per bushel. Corn rose 2¼ cents to $4.22 per bushel. Soybeans rose slightly more strongly, closing 7¼ cents higher at $10.30½ per bushel.
Black Sea wheat supplies continue to put pressure on the European wheat market. Market bureau Ikar raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2,4 million tons to 46,5 million tons. Sovecon estimates that Russia will export between 3 and 3,4 million tons of wheat in January, compared to 2,3 million tons in January 2025. For the entire 2025/26 season, Sovecon estimates Russian exports at 44,6 million tons. This forecast is in line with the USDA's forecast earlier this week, which left Russian exports unchanged at 44 million tons in the Wasde report.
Recent drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea have worried shipping insurers. This week, two more oil tankers owned by a Greek shipping company were also targeted by drone attacks. One ship flies the Maltese flag and the other the Liberian flag. The ships sustained no significant damage in the attack, Greek authorities reported to the French news agency AFPT. At least one of these ships was en route to load oil from Kazakhstan near the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
The premium for insuring a vessel traveling in the Black Sea has risen significantly due to the drone threat. At the end of December, the premium was between 0,6% and 0,8% of the vessel's insured value. That has now risen to around 1%, Reuters reports, citing industry sources. This raises the premium to its highest level since 2023. These policies are normally valid for seven days, but insurers are now reviewing the terms every 24 hours. Just a month ago, this was typically every 48 hours. David Smith, head of maritime affairs at insurance broker McGill and Partners, told Reuters that premiums are highly volatile, with prices fluctuating daily. The insurance premium depends in part on the vessel's value, ownership structure, and the intended port.
In the US, grains and soybeans showed cautious signs of recovery yesterday, following the blow the market took from the Wasde report. A record production average of 1,196 million barrels of ethanol per day in the week of January 9th restored some confidence. According to some analysts, speculators are anticipating a potentially more favorable stance from Trump on biofuels. Trump could, for example, support the US agricultural sector by mandating a higher blending percentage for biofuels.
The US Supreme Court was scheduled to rule yesterday on the import tariffs imposed by Trump. The court's ruling has been postponed again, and a new date has not been announced. Several countries, including China, have taken countermeasures (such as banning US agricultural products) against the US import tariffs. The US agricultural sector has therefore voiced considerable criticism of Trump's trade policy, which they believe has exacerbated price declines in products such as soybeans.