In terms of tons, 2025/26 was a good year for grain. The IGC has revised the global yield upwards by 31 million tons. Consumption is also higher, but is increasing less rapidly than production. Lower yields are predicted for the upcoming wheat harvest. The IGC is not alone in this view. In the US, there is an uproar over Trump's biofuel plans. The agribusiness and oil lobbies are diametrically opposed to each other on this.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €0,50 at €189,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 2 cents lower at $5.10½ per bushel. Corn also fell slightly, closing 1¾ cents lower at $4.20¼ per bushel. Soybeans, however, rose on the Chicago exchange, closing 10½ cents higher at $10.53 per bushel.
The IGC has revised its global grain harvest forecast upwards by 31 million tons from the previous estimate in November, to 2.461 million tons. Corn in the US and China, wheat in Argentina and Canada, and barley in Australia and Canada, among others, performed better than previously expected. Grain consumption has also been revised upwards, but less sharply than production. According to the IGC, total consumption will be 2.416 million tons, 16 million tons more than the November estimate. The wheat harvest for the 2025/26 season will be 842 million tons, up from 830 million tons in November, according to the IGC, and last season's global harvest was 801 million tons.
Smaller harvest in 2026
"The area under wheat cultivation for the 2026/27 season is expected to decline slightly. Based on average yields, next year's harvest will initially decline by about 2% year-on-year," writes the IGC. Demand for wheat will reach a new high, and wheat stocks will therefore decrease slightly, the IGC predicts. However, the organization does not foresee a market reversal. "Total wheat stocks at the major exporters are expected to remain at a comfortable level."
A comfortable level of wheat stocks, to use the IGC's terminology, remains a concern in the EU. Market bureau Expana lowered the EU's wheat export forecast by 1,2 million tons to 28,8 million tons. If the EU wants to achieve that volume, exporters will have their work cut out for them. According to European Commission data, 11,6 million tons of wheat were exported this season up to January 11. A year earlier, that figure was 11,8 million tons, bringing total exports to 21,5 million tons.
Expana has increased its forecast for the 2026 wheat harvest by 300.000 tons compared to the December estimate, to 128,6 million tons. Growing conditions for wheat in the EU are good, the agency notes. However, the harvest will be 8,6 million tons lower than the 2025 harvest. Last season, yields in the EU were exceptionally good. Expana expects yields for the upcoming harvest to be more in line with the long-term average.
Biodiesel
In the US, there's some controversy surrounding Trump's plans to blend biofuels into gasoline and diesel. He will announce the final blending quotas in early March. Reuters reports, citing sources, that Trump is likely to stick closely to the EPA's proposal. The target quota is 5,2 to 5,6 billion gallons (20 to 21 million cubic meters) of biodiesel.
The lower end of the range relates to the EPA's plan to reduce the value of certificates for imported biofuels. This "America First" policy was considered a victory by the soy and biodiesel industries. Major oil companies, led by the American Petroleum Institute, argued that limiting certificates for foreign supplies could restrict availability and drive up fuel prices.