Since the 1990s, the average wheat yield per hectare has stagnated in Northwest Europe. Even if a small gain is achieved, other factors offset this. This is evident from a comprehensive study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). Nevertheless, researchers see opportunities to increase yields again. Climate change is contributing to this.
Between the 1960s and the 1990s, wheat yield per hectare increased annually by an average of 120 kilos, before leveling off somewhat. In the Netherlands, this increase was even larger, at 130 kilos. Between 1994 and 2016, a gain of 74 to 84 kilos per hectare was achieved, but external factors generally prevent this from being reflected. This is mainly due to more light during the flowering period, thanks to earlier flowering, and elevated CO2 concentrations in the air.
Rest crop not positive
Especially in the Netherlands and Belgium, wheat is used as a rest crop between two high-yield crops. WUR researchers consider this practice detrimental to further increasing yields. The crop receives less attention, soil compaction increases, and sowing is often delayed. There are also more soil-borne diseases. In areas where wheat is the primary crop, yields are generally slightly higher, although this also depends on the soil type and location.
The increase in atmospheric CO₂ has a clearly positive effect, but even without this effect, yields have steadily increased. 140 trials in Flevoland show that water was a limiting factor on 67 plots. Nitrogen deficiency was a stressor on 99 plots. These are the two most limiting factors for yield.
Steady growth
In Northwest Europe, where 10 million hectares of wheat are grown (10% of global production), the average yield is 7,4 tons per hectare, with a range of seven to nine tons. Research shows that this yield could increase by 67 to 114 kilograms annually, but this potential remains underutilized. That may not sound like much, but over a ten-year period, it translates to 670 to 1.114 kilograms per hectare. This doesn't take into account the downsides of climate change. Improved genetics continue to ensure yield increases.
The researchers don't see adjusting the water and nitrogen supply as the key to higher yields. Crop rotation and soil management are key. Climate change is currently working in wheat's favor. In the 1970s, peak flowering occurred around the longest day of the year. After 2010, that date shifted to June 1st. While the number of flowering days has decreased, the number of hours and intensity of sunshine are higher during this period. This ultimately results in higher yields.
Good wheat year
The world record for wheat stands at 17,95 tons per hectare and is held by Briton Tim Lamyman. The record dates back to 2022. The arable farmer previously held the record for barley and rapeseed. Last year, the Netherlands achieved the highest average yield ever, 10,5 tons per hectare. This is considerably higher than the 7,2 tons achieved the previous year.