The wheat market is struggling to move in terms of prices. Weather conditions and import demand dominate the news, but overall, prices remain largely unchanged.
Wheat prices on the Paris futures market remain pegged at around €190 per tonne. On Wednesday morning, January 21st, prices rose slightly higher, just as they did on Monday, but not by much. On Tuesday, the market closed at €189,25 per tonne.
Prices for the month of May are already in the same boat as those for March. Prices for May deliveries are currently barely above €190 per tonne. For prices above €200 per tonne, you have to look at the sales of the new harvest at the very end of this year. At €195 per tonne, the product directly from the 2026 harvest yields barely more than current wheat. December is slightly higher, with prices of €201,50 per tonne.
Trading in Chicago is no better. Exchanges remained closed on Monday, and prices fell slightly on Tuesday in a weak market. The March contract fell 7,75 cents to $5,10¼ a bushel. This immediately dashed Friday's mild optimism.
Aside from minor daily fluctuations, prices haven't budged since the end of December. The dollar's exchange rate remains weak. The euro has been fluctuating around $1,17 for weeks. This has significantly impacted European grain exports, as it makes it easier for other suppliers to offer lower prices.
Global market sales
Major importing countries are benefiting from the large supply on the global market. Algeria and Saudi Arabia have purchased a combined total of approximately 1,6 million tons of wheat, at prices around €255 per ton, including freight. These low prices are a result of intense international competition among suppliers.
India's decision to gradually allow some wheat flour exports again isn't brightening the outlook for the wheat market for the time being. For now, the country has granted a one-time export quota of 500.000 tons. This is the first relaxation in three years.
In addition, rainfall in North Africa is improving harvest prospects on that continent. In Kazakhstan, the outlook has become somewhat more pessimistic because crops are vulnerable to frost damage due to a thin snowpack.
Local prices
In the Netherlands, local prices are also holding steady. "Geopolitical tensions and ample supply are balancing each other out," notes the listings committee in Groningen. The wheat price on this exchange is stabilizing at €189 per tonne. The Beurs Zuid (South Exchange) is also trading unchanged at an average level of €176 per tonne.