Wheat prices on the Paris futures market were under pressure yesterday, primarily due to a stronger euro against the dollar. Chicago had a weaker day, with prices barely moving there.
In Paris, the March wheat contract fell by €1,75 to €187,25 per tonne. This pushes the price even further below €190 per tonne, after already falling below that level on Monday. December delivery (i.e., the new harvest) is barely holding out if you assume that wheat prices will only start to become attractive from €200 per tonne. There's not much more in the pipeline for now. You'd have to act on March 2028 delivery to get anywhere near prices approaching €220 per tonne.
The strong euro is currently hampering sales of European wheat. The exchange rate even rose to just above $1,20, significantly hampering trade. It makes European wheat more expensive compared to the competing dollar-denominated trade.
Trading in Chicago was quieter than in the preceding days. The wintry weather has been a major concern there, but its effect is fading somewhat. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether the low temperatures actually caused any damage. Whether yesterday was the calm before the storm remains to be seen. Prices barely budged. Prices for March deliveries rose slightly, prices for May remained stable, and prices for later deliveries fell slightly.
In the Netherlands, grain prices remain largely stable this week. Wheat prices in Groningen rose slightly to €190 per tonne, but otherwise, there were no changes. The Groningen grain exchange's quotation committee notes that prices remain under pressure due to lower offers from more southerly countries.
The stronger euro makes exporting difficult for trade within the European Union, putting significant pressure on the internal market. On the other hand, sales within the EU are much less affected this year by wheat from Ukraine. Imports from that country remain at less than 500.000 tons, while a year ago, around 3,3 million tons of Ukrainian wheat were imported into the EU during the same period.
On the other hand, slightly more wheat is entering the EU from Canada and also slightly more wheat from Serbia. Overall, total soft wheat imports this season remain limited to just under 2,3 million tons. This quantity is 2,7 million tons lower than in the same period last season.